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  1. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
    Staff Member Poker Coach

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    Spin & Go's SNG is the newest tournament structure of PokerStars. It's a SNG where winner takes it all, games start at hyper turbo-alike 25bbs, 3 players enter. How it differs from regular SNGs is that you do not know how much you're playing for before the game starts. In case of 30$ SNG, you can be battling for 60$ prize or 30000$ prize. I'd presume this makes this format very popular with recreational players.

    On the other hand, when compared to the most similar game - Hyper Turbo headsups, rake seems to be on the high side in these games. For a equivalent stake Hyper Turbo headsup, rake is about twice that in Spin & Gos. Higher rake will be somewhat compensated for additional hands in the game and 3 minute blind levels instead of 2 minute blind levels. If you compare the games to 6-max Hyper Turbo SNGs, you will notice that blind length is higher and there are no antes in the games. Rake is at the same level as in 6-max SNGs, but I would presume it is harder to beat because of less hands per game.

    How to calculate the rake in Spin & Goes.

    You will need to calculate how big prizepool the different multipliers will do in certain amount of games. If we're thinking about 300000 games, players will pay 300000 buyins to take part. All the money that does not get returned to players will be rake. In the 1$ Spin & Go (first 3 levels will pay 120% of the multiplier):

    5 * 1200 + 10 * 240 + 15 * 120 + 80 * 25 + 1000 * 10 + 8000 * 6 + 13510 * 4 + 2 * 77380 = 279000

    300000 - 279000 = 21000

    So 21000 buyins will be taken as rake in 100000 Spin & Gos.

    21000 / 300000 * 100% = 7%

    So we can deduce, that rake is 7% exact at the 1$ Spin & Gos.

    How much do you need to win at Spin & Gos to be breakeven or winning player

    I will be converting the winning percentages to chips as well, so that you can use PokerTracker's or HoldemManager's own all in adjusted Equity chips to know quicker if you are a winning player in the games or not. With the all in adjusted equity, you will require about 3x less games to determine how well you're playing the structure.

    When rake is 7% exact at the 1$ Spin & Gos

    You'll need to have 35.9% or better winrate to be a breakeven player at 1$ Spin & Gos.
    This means you will have to win on average 38.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 37.7% or better winrate to be a +5% winner at 1$ Spin & Gos.
    This means you will have to win on average 65.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 39.5% or better winrate to be a +10% winner at 1$ Spin & Gos.
    This means you will have to win on average 92.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    Rake is 6% exact at the 3$ and 7$ Spin & Gos.

    You'll need to have 35.5% or better winrate to be a breakeven player at 3$ or 7$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 32 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 37.3% or better winrate to be a +5% winner at 3$ or 7$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 59.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 39.1% or better winrate to be a +10% winner at 3$ or 7$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 85.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    Rake is 5% exact at the 15$ and 30$ Spin & Gos.

    You'll need to have 35.1% or better winrate to be a breakeven player at 15$ or 30$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 26.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 36.9% or better winrate to be a +5% winner at 15$ or 30$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 53.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 38.6% or better winrate to be a +10% winner at 15$ or 30$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 79 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    Odds in hitting a certain type of Spin & Go

    1$ Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1000x buyin for the winner  (0.005%) - also pays 100x for second and third
    10    / 100000 = 200x buyin for the winner   (0.01%)  - also pays 20x for second and third
    15    / 100000 = 100x buyin for the winner   (0.015%) - also pays 10x for second and third
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyin for the winner    (0.08%)
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyin for the winner    (1%)     - 99.9% of starting 1$ Spin & Gos are between 2-10x
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyin for the winner     (8%)     - 98.9% of starting 1$ Spin & Gos are between 2-6x 
    13510 / 100000 = 4x buyin for the winner     (13.51%) - 90.9% of starting 1$ Spin & Gos are between 2-4x 
    77380 / 100000 = 2x buyin for the winner     (77.38%)
    3$ Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1000x buyin for the winner  (0.005%) - also pays 100x for second and third
    10    / 100000 = 200x buyin for the winner   (0.01%)  - also pays 20x for second and third
    15    / 100000 = 100x buyin for the winner   (0.015%) - also pays 10x for second and third
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyin for the winner    (0.08%)
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyin for the winner    (1%)     - 99.9% of starting 3$ Spin & Gos are between 2-10x
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyin for the winner     (8%)     - 98.9% of starting 3$ Spin & Gos are between 2-6x 
    16510 / 100000 = 4x buyin for the winner     (16.51%) - 90.9% of starting 3$ Spin & Gos are between 2-4x 
    74380 / 100000 = 2x buyin for the winner     (74.38%)
    7$ or higher Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1000x buyin for the winner  (0.005%) - also pays 100x for second and third
    10    / 100000 = 200x buyin for the winner   (0.01%)  - also pays 20x for second and third
    15    / 100000 = 100x buyin for the winner   (0.015%) - also pays 10x for second and third
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyin for the winner    (0.08%)
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyin for the winner    (1%)     - 99.9% of starting 7$ or higher Spin & Gos are between 2-10x
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyin for the winner     (8%)     - 98.9% of starting 7$ or higher Spin & Gos are between 2-6x 
    18010 / 100000 = 4x buyin for the winner     (18.01%) - 90.9% of starting 7$ or higher Spin & Gos are between 2-4x 
    72880 / 100000 = 2x buyin for the winner     (72.88%)
    How much your results will require hitting the highest tiers in the Spin-phase

    1$ Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1200x buyins in play (0.005%) - 2.2%  of money is distributed here
    10    / 100000 = 240x buyin in play   (0.01%)  - 0.9%  of money is distributed here
    15    / 100000 = 120x buyin in play   (0.015%) - 0.6%  of money is distributed here
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyins in play   (0.08%)  - 0.7%  of money is distributed here
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyins in play   (1%)     - 3.6%  of money is distributed here
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyins in play    (8%)     - 17.2% of money is distributed here
    13510 / 100000 = 4x buyins in play    (13.51%) - 19.4% of money is distributed here 
    77380 / 100000 = 2x buyins in play    (77.38%) - 55.4% of money is distributed here
    Top levels that you will hit on average only once in 1000 games (0.1% of your games) are distributing 4.4% of the money in the structure. The top level you are going to hit once in 20000 games (0.005%) is distributing 2.2% of the money in the structure.

    3$ Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1200x buyins in play (0.005%) - 2.1%  of money is distributed here
    10    / 100000 = 240x buyin in play   (0.01%)  - 0.8%  of money is distributed here
    15    / 100000 = 120x buyin in play   (0.015%) - 0.6%  of money is distributed here
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyins in play   (0.08%)  - 0.7%  of money is distributed here
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyins in play   (1%)     - 3.5%  of money is distributed here
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyins in play    (8%)     - 16.8% of money is distributed here
    16510 / 100000 = 4x buyins in play    (16.51%) - 23.2% of money is distributed here
    74380 / 100000 = 2x buyins in play    (74.38%) - 52.2% of money is distributed here
    Top levels that you will hit on average only once in 1000 games (0.1% of your games) are distributing 4.2% of the money in the structure. The top level you are going to hit once in 20000 games (0.005%) is distributing 2.1% of the money in the structure.

    7$ or higher Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1200x buyins in play (0.005%) - 2.1%  of money is distributed here
    10    / 100000 = 240x buyin in play   (0.01%)  - 0.8%  of money is distributed here
    15    / 100000 = 120x buyin in play   (0.015%) - 0.6%  of money is distributed here
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyins in play   (0.08%)  - 0.7%  of money is distributed here
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyins in play   (1%)     - 3.5%  of money is distributed here
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyins in play    (8%)     - 16.7% of money is distributed here
    18010 / 100000 = 4x buyins in play    (18.01%) - 25.0% of money is distributed here
    72880 / 100000 = 2x buyins in play    (72.88%) - 50.6% of money is distributed here
    Top levels that you will hit on average only once in 1000 games (0.1% of your games) are distributing 4.2% of the money in the structure. The top level you are going to hit once in 20000 games (0.005%) is distributing 2.1% of the money in the structure.

    Why does this matter?

    There is a 1.5% chance that you will NOT hit a higher than 10x multiplier in 5000 games.
    There is a 5.3% chance that you will NOT hit a higher than 10x multiplier in 3000 games.

    There is a 95% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 1000 games.
    There is a 77% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 3000 games.
    There is a 62.5% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 5000 games.
    There is a 42.1% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 10000 games.
    There is a 24.2% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 20000 games.
    There is a 7.4% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 50000 games.
    There is a 1.5% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 100000 games.

    I'd think reasonable upper bound for yearly volume is about 50000 games for the most active grinder in Spin & Gos. The player might go for a year with 7.4% chance of never hitting the highest level. Effectively the player would need to be winning at least 2.2% in the games to be breakeven for that year.

    If you're a clearly winning player in Spin & Gos and you will win 37% of your games.

    There is a 1% chance that you will not win any of 10 games.
    There is a 10% chance that you will not win any of 5 games.

    So the most active grinder in the games, if he hits 1000x prizepools every 20000 games would still have 1% chance for not winning a single 1000x game IN FOUR YEARS! So he would effectively need to be winning at least at 1.8% in the games to be just breakeven in the meanwhile.

    If he hits 1000x prizepools every 20000 games, he would still have a 10% chance for not winning the 1000x game IN TWO YEARS!

    I would think that if you would want to play Spin & Gos professionally, you would have to be among the highest volume grinders and have at least 5% ROI for you to be expecting monthly results. If you're just over breakeven (1-2%) in the games, you can go for years without winning money even if you are among the highest volume grinders.

    I will be splitting this article in two parts and in the next part we will be discussing about simulations for different types of Spin & Go Players, what kind of bankroll is required and what would be the life of a Spin & Go player.
     
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  2. Kyyberi

    Kyyberi Well-Known Member
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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Kyyberi

    Kyyberi Well-Known Member
    Staff Member Poker Coach Moderator

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    Ciprian, when you decide to exclude information based only on your prejudices, you are limiting your possibilities to learn. Like if you totally ignore anything Ahille22 might say, you might actually miss a lot. You have never discussed with him, and still you are convinced that discussing with him might harm your learning. This all is based on old stats and one hand history?

    Even if he is a losing player, he might have valuable information regarding the stakes, villains, tendencies, learning etc. He might have leaks (big and small) but he also might be very good in some of the concepts and things OP isn't. As Aarnimetsa said this is a community and a forum. The whole idea behind these is to create a platform where players can discuss about strategies and learning, among with many other things. I find it disturbing that someone is excluded from the conversation before he has even said anything. You don't have to agree with anyone here, but please at least give them a chance to say something. If you disagree what they are saying, that's great! Then you can tell your point of view or thoughts about it, and we have a conversation. And maybe we all learn something from it.
     
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  4. lavinia95

    lavinia95 Active Member

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    Hello ,as by title,
    I am very happy beat more 1k player in this mtt :) Thanks to everyone mostly to AArny!
     

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  5. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
    Staff Member Poker Coach

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    About two month's ago Kyyberi had an idea. "I want to do an epic Omaha marathon." So idea formed, let's do something good with Omaha, that great card game.

    PokeriMania will organize a 24 hour Omaha-filled Marathon for charity. Our aim is to raise money for Child's Play. Child's Play is a great charity that focuses on bringing joyful games, movies and things to play with for kids that are in hospitals and domestic violence shelters. We chose our target hospital to be closest hospital to us, Stockholm's Karolinska Institute's Astrid Lindgren children's hospital.

    24 hours of Omaha will start on 28. November, 10:00 AM at Finnish time (08:00 GMT, 09:00 CET, 03:00 Eastern standard time) and end exactly one day later. Everything isn't filled to the brim with Omaha though. MarkusY will play some MTT's where all the winnings are donated to charity. Aarnimetsa will be doing some tournament poker as additional program during the marathon. There will be a donation possibility during the Marathon and with donations you have a possibility to purchase donated tournament poker coachings from Aarnimetsa or Ghaleon. Premier tools for Omaha, ProPokerTools and PokerJuice will offer software packages during the marathon as well.

    Our preliminary schedule is (all times Finnish time):

    10:00 - Kyyberi starts the Marathon
    14:00 - We will follow MarkusY's MTTs during the session.
    18:00-21:00 - Aarnimetsa on tournament poker. Or hosting PLO Home games?!?
    21:00 Kyyberi shows real tournament poker. Omaha tournaments!
    8:00-10:00 Kyyberi teaches Dayah Omaha From Scratch. How to approach the game if you don't know anything about it?
    10:00 - Everything good comes to an end, even a marathon. Kyyberi will wish you good morning and catch some well deserved sleep.

    It is possible to participate to the 24h Charity Event in two different ways. Direct donations to Child's Play through Tiltify or crowdfunding the games with Kyyberi.

    On donations, everything after Tiltify's processing costs will go towards Child's Play. You can see our campaign page here: http://tiltify.com/events/omaha-does-good

    Kyyberi will play the games during the stream with crowdfunding and unlike normal crowdfunding both Kyyberi and crowdfunders will give one third of their possible winnings on the night for this Charity Event.

    You can see the PLO MTT games crowdfunding here: insiders-f202/charity-marathon-plo-mtt-crowdfunding-thread-t1437.html

    You can see the PLO Cash Games crowdfunding here: insiders-f202/charity-marathon-plo-cash-games-crowdfunding-thread-t1438.html

    We will follow up with additional information soon. Questions and ideas are welcome to this thread.
     
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  6. Shakal

    Shakal Member

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    So, i decided to wrote an article of setting and reaching goals. It's kind of a really huge topic and i have to break it down in small steps. To not overcharge you and me, i will every morning - when i find time to - extend this article.

    1. You have your own formula for success, you only need to find it!

    Everyone does everyday some sort of challenge. And in your life you have a lot of experience with getting things done.
    A simple example: You'r trying to get your driver license. You needed to learn new stuff, get it together and pass your exam.
    Everyone has done such things and succeeded. But the most people don't know why and how they have done this.

    So the first step is to know how your own brain works and how you like to solve problems. Beneath is a list with a bunch of questions which can help you to understand yourself a little better:
    (It is helpful to take you one specific goal you reached, before you try to answer these questions)

    1. Everytime you wanted to reach something, do you have a clear picture of the outcome in front of your eyes?

    2. Did you set up some criteria, which were important for you?

    3. wherefrom you know, what you want?

    4. What were your reasons, to get this thing done?

    5. Did you think about reaching the goal and feel happy about it?

    6. What made you go on, and don't give up at some point?

    7. What exactly were you single steps to reach the goal?
    7.1 What was your first step?
    7.2 What you did after that?

    8. How you know, what to do, to reach the goal?

    9. In which ways you got your informations?

    10. Did you write down your goals?

    11. Did you make some pauses, if yes, how many?

    12. Did you hurry up, or take your time?

    13. What on the way was really difficult for you, and why?

    14. What did you do, to make it easier for you?

    15. Do you like to do things alone, or do you like to have other people around you?

    16. What sorts of problems you had to solve, before you reached your goal?
    16.1 How you reacted if a problem showed up?
    16.2. What helped you to solve the problems?

    17. Who supported you, and how?


    After your answer all these questions, i hope you have a better picture about you and your working tendencies. Maybe you find out that you like to work alone in a quiet room and think about solutions. Or you need to talk to a friend, or taking a walk to think about thigs. Maybe you find out that you are a very audible person and need to hear your informations, or you are a very visual and need to see something etc.

    2. Know your own wishes!

    So, the second part i think is really important for your life. Yes, at the moment we all have the same Goal: Getting good or even better at Poker. But your life can and will change over the time. And so your wishes. I tried many different stuff out till now. I'm interested in many things and like to try new stuff. At the moment my focus lies on poker, but i also like design and i also like learning and teaching. So maybe i can manage to make a bunch of money with poker and then i decide to only be a coach or take the money i won and start my own company etc.

    What i want to say. You can have different interests, but at some point they all are connected together. And if you know what your biggest wishes are in your life you can be more focused and many things you do or want to do starting to make more sense ;)

    So, start knowing you self better. This can only happen if you think about yourself and start answering some questions. And here we go, with another bunch of these: (At first the questions seem to be a bit off, but if you try to answer them good you will understand. If not, don't be shy to ask :))

    1. How does your home look like? Are there some things/parts of your home you want to change? Are there pieces of furniture you can't life without them?

    2. How you dress? Which colours you like? Do you have a personal style?

    3. What are you reading? Which Books are standing at your bookshelf?
    Which kind of paper you read a lot?

    4. Which kind of music you like?

    5. In what kind of TV-shows are you interested? What do you like, what do you don't like?

    6. What are the favorite topics you like to talk about?

    7. What do you like to do? What topics you like to think about?

    8. What is important to you? What are your interests at the moment?



    Mindgames:

    No i show you some Mindgames you can go through. I think they are very helpful if you do one or two of them. Use your whole fantasy and afterwards try to analyse it. It can help you a lot to get a clearer picture of your wishes.

    1.The Island:
    Now think about the fact you can have your own Island. You can completely decide what is going on there.

    1.1 What kinds of buildings are there?
    1.2 Which people you like to have around you?
    1.3 What you do the whole day?

    2. Suggest you are rich.

    2.1. What would you buy?
    2.2 Where would you like to life?
    2.3 Are you still working?
    2.4 Which kind of wishes you will fulfill?


    3. The ideal Day:
    Think about the perfect day of your life. What are you doing on this day? Where you are? Who is with you etc.

    4. The best time of your life:
    Think about your past and try to find out the best time of your life. What you have done at this time? What did you feel? What was different from now? etc.

    5. Childhood dreams:
    Not much to say, everybody know this ;) Think about your childhood dreams.

    6. Your life:
    Think about your whole life. Where you lived? What was important for you? Who was important for you? What you did the last years? Why you decided to go this way you are going now? What jobs you did etc.

    7. Look at your future:
    Think about how you life should be in 1 year in 5 years or in 10 years. Where you stand? What goals you have reached? What are you doing? etc.

    At the end, write down 20 thing you like to do.


    End of Part 2. Yeah, i know it looks a bit scary and it is a kind of work. But i can promise you it can help you a lot. You can everyday pick one of those questions and answer it. Or maybe you can take one of these Mentalgames and do it when you are sitting in the bus and you are bored. Do this before you start playing some games on your Iphone ;)
     
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  7. Dayah

    Dayah Administrator
    Staff Member Moderator

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    Devontheprince - thanks for bringing this to our attention. I know it's really frustrating when you want to trust people, give them another chances to solve the situation and after a long period of time they still keep disappointing.

    Impactpoint - it doesn't matter what's the word he calls you. Basic line - you borrowed money from many people with a promise to pay back, made apparently some sort of disappearing act, and after many months you had time to clear the situation you still haven't paid back as agreed. Everything else is just words and excuses. I truly hope you will eventually pay back the people (get the money from somewhere or be the man, whatever the case), no matter how long it takes. One day hope to hear this has happened and that day I will raise my hat to you.

    For everyone else - may this case show you the possible dangers of staking/lending money online (or IRL for that matter). Anything and everything can happen, whether it is just really sad and real circumstances or deliberately act of scamming - always consider you might lose everything you invested in a blink of an eye.

    There will always be many sides for each case and probably no one will ever know the whole truth. Before Devontheprince clears that everyone and everything is paid back, please use extreme caution when dealing with impactpoint. Even though this has happened outside of our forum may these messages stay here as a warning to everyone. Not just specifically of this case, but to remind people not to be too trusting online - you never know who you are dealing with.
     
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  8. Warp

    Warp Active Member

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    Not sure if you can compare the games that you are playing to the games that are running on MPN , but I used the RedKings promotion from the forum here and I get 30% rakeback flat.

    No matter volume or game type. It's just a button, for every 3€ rake I get 1$ RB (making it less than 33% RB) - which I can click at any point, as long I don't wait for months because then they expire or something.

    No goals to chase, no pressure unless you do it to yourself, no hoarding to get better cash exchange rates...very relaxing and the 30% aren't too shabby, afaik it's like Supernova on Stars.

    All those loyalty programs feel like these special mobile phone plans - where they make you jump through hoops to get a slightly better deal, like "it's cheaper after 22:00, but not if it's a weekday, but if you are near your home it's free, but the internet speed might be slow depending on your monthly volume, but you can always use the hotspots for free - but then you have to share your home line with somebody else who might be torrenting but that's not our fault...blablabla" and a dozen other tripwires to screw the customer out of his advantages. No thanks. So therefore I appreciate the "fair deal" that I get on RK/MPN.
     
    #5 Warp, Apr 5, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2017
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  9. Kyyberi

    Kyyberi Well-Known Member
    Staff Member Poker Coach Moderator

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    [​IMG]

    HO HO HO!

    Have you been naughty or nice? Doesn't matter as this offer is valid for everyone!

    I am giving away one free hour of private coaching for Christmas. Send your letter to Santa, application, story or whatever you feel like to this thread and I will pick one at 24th day.

    Only condition is that the coaching is held between Christmas and New Year's Eve.

    This is pretty good chance for smallest micro stakes players, as the stakes doesn't matter at all now!

    Happy Holidays!
     
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  10. lavinia95

    lavinia95 Active Member

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    Hello
    As by title , I am very very very happy! first time I win in a tournament almost 4k.
    Thanks so much everyone in this forum mostly my master AArny,the coach Galeon and Danitah.
    Kissees!

    Sin título.png
     
    #1 lavinia95, Oct 13, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 13, 2016
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  11. lavinia95

    lavinia95 Active Member

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    I won 350$ whit 2.2$ BI :) I am very happy!
     

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  12. lavinia95

    lavinia95 Active Member

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    As by title Thanks everyone especially to AArny :)
     

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  13. lavinia95

    lavinia95 Active Member

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    Hi guyz after more 10 hours of play I won 633 dollars :) thanks everyone!
     

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  14. lavinia95

    lavinia95 Active Member

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    As by title, 0,27 BI, Won 95 dollars,Thanks to everybody for help me especially to great AArny!
     

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  15. Mispoes

    Mispoes Active Member

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    Risitas Announces PokerStars VIP Changes for 2016

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTIiuGKwB8g
     
    #32 Mispoes, Nov 4, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 12, 2016
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  16. NXPNinja

    NXPNinja Active Member

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    Interview with Ansky:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntncu_LfT3g
     
    #21 NXPNinja, Nov 3, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 12, 2016
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  17. Dayah

    Dayah Administrator
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    January Coaching Nights

    At the moment our schedule for January looks like this, more to come when all the throats are healed :D

    We 6.1 Ghaleon SNG EN 21-
    Thu 14.1 Aarnimetsa SNG EN 21-
    Fri 15.1 Kyyberi PLO EN 21.30-
    Tu 19.1 Ghaleon SNG EN 21-
    Thu 28.1 Aarnimetsa SNG EN 21-
    Fri 29.1 Kyyberi PLO EN 21.30-
     
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  18. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
    Staff Member Poker Coach

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    I honestly don't know what is your problem. This is a discussion forum and we're trying to foster discussion which would improve the players. Discussion about poker in general and coming up with why you should do something and explaining it to others and getting critique on your explanations is one of the best ways to learn to be better. I know a player from the community that plays the same games and has recently been winning in those, so I'd think he will have a better grasp how the players play in those games right now.

    Your attitude seems to be quite contradictory for a community focused on learning to be better in poker where there are very few black and white right answers, so consider yourself warned.
     
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  19. Kyyberi

    Kyyberi Well-Known Member
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    Here it is. It assumes that everyone has 500 chips. So if the stack sizes vary, you can use that as a starting point. What I found is that when I played with those charts and looked the results from HRC, there wasn't many mistakes. And most of the mistakes were marginal ones.
     

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  20. Shakal

    Shakal Member

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    3. Setting Goals:

    Took my a few days, but today i managed it to write Part 3. I hope you read the first two parts and took you some time to answer some of the questions.
    Toady we will talk about what is really important in setting goals.


    There are more different "techniques" and concepts. But i will introduce you to the S.M.A.R.T concept. One i really like myself and i think it wrap up all the important things about setting goals.


    S.M.A.R.T:

    1. (S)ense-) specific:
    At first it is really useful for your brain, if your goals are on the point.
    So you should make a picture in your mind where you want to be and how the situation is, if you reached your goal. This is a strong motivation for your Head, if you have a concrete picture of your success.

    1. How you realize, you reached your goal?
    2. What are you hearing, feeling, seeing, when you achieve your goal?
    3. suggest you reached your goal: What is going on around you, who is there, what is happening and how specific do you feel?


    Example:
    Wrong: Becoming a Poker Pro
    Right: I will be sitting on the Final Table Heads up at an EPT event. I invited my close friends to be around me when i win. I'm really focused on the game and watch my opponent. I hear the voices of the people around who talking about the good play and the good newcomer sitting in the Heads up. And so on…

    Make a story out of it and visualize it in your Head, over and over again.

    2. (M)easurable
    It is important, that you have some concrete points, at which you can clearly see what you have reached.

    1. On which concrete points you can see, that you have reached your goal?
    2. Which are the measurable success metrics?


    Example: I think this point is really important in Poker. Because you can't say my goal is making 500K in the next year. Maybe it will happen, maybe not. This is something you can't really influence. So you can't be so result orientated, it is more about the process.

    Wrong: I will win 500K in one year
    Right: I will learn concepts and improve my game, so that i can beat better players, step up the limits to a point where i could win 500K. I will see my achievements in my own game statistics, in my notices in working on leaks. And so on...

    3.(A)ttractive
    Your goal have to be attractive for your head. To make this happen you goal have to be positive. And it should be so positive, that you want to start it NOW! (To know what is important for you and what you want to do and are excited about read lesson 1 and 2 :))

    Example:
    Wrong: I will not give up (This is negative, because there is a "not")
    Right: I will do everything it takes to reach this goal. I will do this, this, this…
    (A bit of a short example, but i think you get the point. Be every time positive in your formulations)

    4. (R)ealisitc
    This is a much more difficult thing to think about. You need to superior, if your goals is really realistic.

    1. Can you manage it to reach the goal with your available resources?
    2. Can you reach the goal on your own?
    3. How big is the goal? Do you need to cut it in more, different, little goals?

    Example:
    Wrong: Tomorrow i play NL500.
    This is a goal which is completely out of order. With my Bankroll i will never get it to NL500 tomorrow aaand…survive there. Even if i really want to play NL500. I have to cut this goal down in little steps and take my time for it.

    So i want to say. Your goals have to be realistic, because if they are not, your brain will get frustrated over the time. You need to make only goals you know you can achieve. It is realistic to go up to NL500, but not tomorrow.

    5. (T)erminate
    The last part of it is to set time limits. It is good four your brain to know 1. something has an end and 2. You know what to do till when. For example, you will get more motivated in the end run if you see you reached this and this till now and to achieve the overall goal it is not more a long way, you are really close, but you have to be focused in the last 2 weeks, to reach it!

    Example:
    Wrong: At some point in my life i will be poker pro
    Right: Till 1.12.2015 i will have learned poker basics. Registered in a community. Played this kind of games. And so on…

    At the end some further tips:

    1. Don't sett your goals which are competing against each other.
    A extreme example: It is not possible to get poker Pro and at the same time getting in a monastery, meditate and learn living without money.

    2. Don't set your goals which compare you with others
    " I will be better than..". Maybe the other guy you compare get worse or get sick and stop playing. Than your goal don't make sense anymore

    3. Be sure that your goal don't have negative influence for your life.
    Playing 12h Poker a day will help you reach your poker goal, but maybe you ignore your health and your friends. And when you are Poker Pro, you are alone and your back is hurting. Doesn't sounds really good ;)

    So this is all about setting an overall goal, a vision. A big thing you want to achieve. At the next part we will discuss about how to break this big goal in little steps to stay motivated and make it even more realistic.
     
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  21. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Let's first calculate the value of one straight flush:

    0.0015 * 5000 + 0.0050 * 1000 + 0.025 * 500 + 0.05 * 100 + 0.10 * 50 + 0.8185 * 20 = 51.37$

    With a random hand, if you would always draw to the bitter end, you would get a straight flush 0.03% of the time. With a random suited hand, the odds would be 0.07%. With a premium suited and connected hand where there's space to hit all straight flushes (JTs), odds to hit would be 0.21%.

    So, for a random hand, there will be maximum extra value of 0.0003 * 51.37$ = 0.015$ = less than one big blind at the smallest levels.
    For a random suited hand, there will be maximum extra value of 0.0007 * 51.37$ = 0.036$ = Almost two big blinds at the smallest levels.
    With the absolute best hands to hit a straight flush, there will be maximum extra value of 0.0021 * 51.37 = 0.108$ = Almost 5 big blinds at the smallest levels.

    Split pots? It's not clear that if winning a split pot counts. I'd believe it should count. However, ties would practically only happen with boarded straight flushes that are really rare. 0,000154% to be exact, so I'd think it will be pretty neglible for the results.

    Even playing Omaha would not give you huge value here. With a random double suited hand you would have 0.13% chance to hit a straight flush. With an absolute premium hand like JcTcJdTd you would have 0.45% chance to hit a straight flush, which would mean only 23 cents of maximum extra value for the absolute best hand to hit a straight flush.

    Value is even less than the optimistic calculations I have provided here, since you will not be seeing all the hands through river and even with the best hands and the smallest stakes, you are really easily priced out of your draw for just straight flush value. I'd estimate that in cash games about 1/3 straight flushes that are possible will come through, rest of the time the player that could get the straight flush gets priced out at some point of the hand. So I wouldn't think it would be farfetched to cut all the promo values to one third of the value.

    My estimation is that this promo is worth next to nothing and most of the value will come from people trying to hit those straight flushes with everything.
     
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  22. danitah

    danitah Well-Known Member

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    I've spent quite a lot of time looking for good music for playing poker, and could always use more. ;) Most important things for me is that it's not distracting and not emotional (Want to reduce moodswings as much as possible). Feel free to recommend whatever kind of music you want here though.

    I actually listen a lot to J-pop most of the time while playing. Not sure if many people here are interested in that, so I've tried to come up with more general background music.

    Yagya

    Tycho

    Hans Zimmer - Interstellar Soundtrack

    Nujabes

    Yoko K.
    http://aphrodizia.bandcamp.com/album/heavens-library - Couldn't find a youtube for this, but it's one of my favourite albums for background music and it really deserves a recommendation.
     
    #1 danitah, Nov 16, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 12, 2016
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  23. FullTimeNit

    FullTimeNit New Member

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    Hey folks,

    a new german guy is in town.
    I am 30,live near colonge and i like poker obv ;) .Normally,i am a FR CG grinder up to Nl25,but i am so sick of these nitring bull****.Boring,boring,boring....
    So its time for a change.In the last 2 months,i really enjoying 9 max/45man Sng´s.I guess these are my new games for the future.And Pokerimania is a good tool for me.Love your Videos Aarni and Dayah :heart:.Kyyberi´s too :heart:
    Btw,this is my graph for the last 15 month on Stars
    [​IMG]

    So i hope i have a good time here with you guys :tup: .Obv my english is not the best :oops:
    Best regards,and a nice weekend.
     
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  24. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

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    Not sure if this is funny or scary.
     
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  25. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Having a high rakeback, but as something that requires a ton of grinding, they'll also create more motivation for people to play regfest-games as they'll require to hit their volume goals throughout the year.

    In general, you don't have a competitive advantage when you're doing the same thing as everyone else. I think Stars are forgetting that a bit. I'd also think optimal would be tweaking something bit by bit, rather than doing drastic changes. VIP-club is a bit problematic though, as they have only once a year to make changes with the yearly levels and if big changes are required, it's harder to tweak it slowly. With only monthly levels they could change it up 12 times a year.

    I don't think that Stars sees immediate effects, but in the long run I believe there will be problems. Even if they lose let's say 25% of their players by volume, they'll need to give up some games that run nicely right now. With SNGs it's a bigger problem, as the SNGs aren't running even throughout the night anymore even at the low levels. Or, Spins run no matter the time of day, other SNGs, not so much.
     
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