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Best Posts in Forum: Hand analysis

  1. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Basically you should ask couple questions in these spots. This awesome simplified master plan diagram made with Paint might (or might not) help:

    Simplified master plan.png
     
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  2. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Post just one hand per post. We have noticed that you will get more and better discussion for your hands, if you post just one hand per post. There are more writers that can respond to a single hand than if the job seems to be a large one for multiple hands and some people do not answer to multi-hand posts if they do not have anything to say for one hand in those, even though they might have great comments for the others.

    Inform others in the thread topic what kind of hand it is. Then Omaha / SNG / MTT / NLHE Cash game players can know if the topic is for them.

    Good: AQ 3-bet push in the BB (90 man MTT Final table)
    Bad: How should I play this?

    Good example shows people what kind of game it is, what is the question about the hand. The bad example tells nothing about the hand itself.

    Give as much background information as possible. This is both for you to practice your skills in distilling what is important in the table and to get a great answer, the people analyzing the hands would need to know as much as possible. Stats / reads on opponents are important.

    When you want to learn most about how to play against an opponent's whole range, do not post the whole hand. Post the hand up to a decision point. This way you don't influence the analyzing person's idea of the hand with what opponent actually held that time. If opponent's play was really weird, you can return to the hand later on with the opponent's hand and ask questions about it, when you have got a good analysis out of it. One possibility is to use the SPOILER-tags for posting the hands, then an analyzer does not need to go through what really happened when he answers but he can read them later on.

    Technical help to post hands:

    HEM1: Choose 2+2 as the format for hand history you are copying.

    HEM2: Choose PHPBB as the format for hand history you are copying.

    Go to anywhere you can see a list of hands (Active session, sessions, tournaments, etc). Choose a row so that it activates. Right click -> View. On the bottom right there's a dropdown menu, where you can select PHPBB and press copy. Then paste the hand to forum and it should work well. If you export the hand out of HEM2 Replayer, you'll need to use external hand converters.

    PT3 or PT4 - Use VBulletin format to copy your hand history (blue V, the middle button in "Copy to Clipboard"-options)

    If you want to use an external handconverter, weaktight.com :s converter works with either a format of QPro or Forum.

    If you have any question about posting hands, please ask your questions in this thread and we will be improving this post in the future!
     
    #1 Aarnimetsa, Sep 20, 2014
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  3. YOULOSTBRO

    YOULOSTBRO Well-Known Member

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    Hello uglybrat. Welcome to the forum!

    Even tho you have 175bb's, the effective stack size is only 60bb, since that's what we can win / lose at most against one opponent.

    UTG+1 and UTG+2 seem to be very fishy, so I wouldn't be too worried about them. Then it's just about if BB is more likely to play KK+ than anything else this way. Since your value-range is / should be pretty wide I can see BB shoving here pretty wide here as well (AK, AQ, TT-JJ being the most likely hands) + might not shove KK+ but would rather make a smaller raise.

    So would not be folding.

    -YLB
     
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  4. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Always make decisions on final table considering ICM side.

    In this hand I would have personally overcalled but lets see how ICM side and villains ranges affect. I have not played these that much recently so not too familiar with structure.

    With default ranges:
    CO shove 34.2%, 22+ Ax K2s+ K9o+ Q5s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s
    SB call 7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+
    Hero overcall 1.8%, JJ+, AKo -0.53%

    Now one thing this doesnt account is future situation (didnt use FGS) and by winning here we have quite bit of value from it as it allows us to pressure other players better. So I think calling is not as bad as this analyze would make it seem. Of course vital question is if those ranges look realistic.

    CO range is pretty wide so I would personally change it closer to 30% without some reads. SB range is pretty tight and we also see that at least ATo is in his range. If I edit ranges to 31.8%, 22+ Ax K6s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s and 8.3%, 88+ A9s+ ATo+ then AKo would be around -0.3% without any future value consideration.

    So I would say that if we have reason to believe CO has around 30% range and SB is not really tight we can go with AK, TT+ but I think wider than that is most of time mistake.
     
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  5. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Bit deep for nice shove. Limping is not option as we cannot really set mine this shallow which we mostly end up doing in multiway pot. Also danger of someone raising behind. As played we have great pot odds and should call BU shove.

    Iso raising small can be ok but main problem is going to be that this sort of limper player really often calls and BB also seems really call happy fellow. So we less often get HU pot. We do have position but most of time its going to be tricky still. For these reasons I would just fold. If no high VPIP or 3bet happy shove stacks behind then small raise could be better.

    PS: Hero is not 3betting if raising here versus limp. Its just 2bet or raise (#termpolice)
     
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  6. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Good, interesting couple of hands. Excellent post to show when it's appropriate to post multiple hands in a same post.

    When you shove, your opponent has no option to resteal, so the sample sizes should be a little different for every option there. Basically it's a case that you're not measuring the same thing, that's why they don't add up to 100%.

    I'd think inducing still makes sense with the strongest part of your range when you can get your opponent to play wider than he usually would. We don't need to go for unexploitable play against opponents that have very glaring leaks.

    I'd still shove a suited small ace here or small pocket pair, I would think that we would fold out too much equity if we would minraise-fold those. Offsuit weak ace I think it's a good minraise-fold with these stack sizes and this type of opponent. I'd think against a generally more aggressive opponent, shove would be the standard line.

    With these stack sizes, I'd think shoving will become a lot better. I'd think to minraise here with a really exploitative and polarized range of just the nuts and the crap. Amount of crap depends on the nittiness of the players, might be that I would shove 30% there, minraise-call 5% and minraise-fold 65% against true nits. I think this hand wins the true nits on the blinds category, especially if the SB in this hand is the BB in the previous hand.

    No, it doesn't. A3s would be a really good shove even against aggressive opponents and against true nits this is a equity dream when you'll think about their whole ranges. Now you just hit the top part of your opponent's range and you're still in the game. With 3 nits on your side, you can probably get that stack up again.

    You'll just need to remember that if you're getting to FT with about 40% of chips, you're still only going to win 50% of those games. Even when you're the best player in the final table. Most of the players think they have already won the game when they have the largest stack going in the Final Table and then your mind makes it look like you only have something to lose. You have not won when you get to the final table with a large stack, you have won when you have all the chips in the Final Table.
     
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  7. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Preflop nice hand to call. In flop you have 4 outs to nut straight and perhaps you can count like one or half out from backdoor flush. So basically you would need around 17% equity to call and with 4-5 outs you have around 9-10% for turn. Most likely there is nice implied odds if hitting turn so its fine to call versus sizing villain use here imo.

    When villain bets flop 4way pot it usually means he has some decent Ax at least. So when hitting turn I would personally try to go for check-raise. I think good portion of MP3 range will continue betting. If donk betting turn I would go with higher sizing like around 2k.

    This is valid point in river. Though 22 or A2s are possible. But imo this is also sort of dangerous way of thinking sometimes. "I am at top of my range so I cannot fold". Why dangerous? Because most important questions here in river when facing raise are:

    1) Does villain have bluffing range?
    2) Does villain have weaker in his value range?
    3) How likely is it villain has better hands in his range?

    1) To me answer here usually is no or very very few hands. Villain has cbet on AK2r flop in 4way flop, called turn donk bet and goes for shove versus sizable river bet. Basically when river pairs board any Ax is at least AA22K. Which means that hero value range should be really strong here.

    2) As said above hero value range should be really strong so hand like AJ or AK should not really be something for villain to shove. But its plausible these hands are in villain value range. Which would mean I think 18 combos.

    3) Definitely AA and KK in villain range. JJ would probably not cbet flop so its unlikely. QTs possible but those are split hands. 22 possible. Also A2s possible. That would be:

    AA, KK, 22: 7 combos
    A2s: 2 combos
    QTs: 3 combos

    So if we think villain would shove AK, AA, KK, A2s and QTs calling would be bit better. If I counted combos correctly. Combos we beat and lose would be even but versus QTs we would split. If villain is shoving AJ as well its better. Obviously even better if villain has bluff range like probably some weaker Ax but that is unlikely imo.

    But if villain is decent enough to not shove AJ or AK for value (which is definitely good line) then our call looks horrible as we are splitting or losing to full house most of time.
     
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  8. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    When minraising you have to call if blinds shove preflop. If CO or BU are aggressive in 3betting then I would prefer to open shove. Shoving is ok play always anyway.

    In flop I would check behind and try to check to showdown unimproved. If villain has better hand he wont fold and weaker hands usually wont call. Also if he happens to have e.g. J :d: T :d: he might check-shove.

    Pretty weird looking donk shove in turn. He never has Ax I would say but also kind of weird spot to shove e.g. flush draw when he might already be dead. He is also passive and tight looking so fold could be best. But have to say that call button would look really enticing for me... Just such weird looking line and if he does happen to have 7x or some pocket pair you will have 7-10 outs pretty much always anyway: 1*A, 3*K, 3*Q and if he has 7 or small pocket then 1-3 * 7 for split. With those assumptions you have around 20% or so equity in turn and from cEV you need 25% of equity. So bit more with ICM.

    So overall I would actually like calling turn more than fold after cbetting turn. He just wont need to have air ball that often for call to be good. But pretty close decision.
     
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  9. Wlore

    Wlore Well-Known Member

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    Hi Brat.

    You are correct to think that you're isolating with too small raise preflop. In general it is good to find your 3bet size in range of 2 to 3 times the original bet + some for the limpers. In this case I would bet something around 10 to 15 BB. 15bb being the standard size and 12bb being reduced size because of you're excellent position to other players involved.

    BB pushing allin would suggest quite good hand. At least top of his range. Stats do not give that much reliable information, but do suggest that he likes to 3bet and maybe tuned to also gamble with other than KK+ in such a situation.

    Original raiser from UTG should easily have the tightest range off all but if he's being a weaker player, his calling range may still be relatively wide and holds something like AQ+, 99+, some cases even worse, but we can go with this range.

    MP1 has usually the most weakest range here that you simply crush with your QQ. Thats mostly dead money right there. :)

    Anyways, you're concerned, if you can go allin 170+ deep. One thing that you need to be aware of is the effective stack sizes. You're not actually risking your whole stack, but only 61BB in the worst case.

    In this case when you have one pushing and 2 overcalls... there's just too good pot ratio that you could ever fold your QQ here. Pot has about 170bb and you need to pay 54. You need to win about 25% of times to break even. I think you have that with your QQ. I would pay.
     
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  10. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    I would have good amount of Ax in my range. Because 3betting low to medium Ax here is not optimal with this deep stacks imo. AT+ or so are ok for small 3bet to induce shove.

    Personally I would likely fold K7o in flop. It is best hand sometimes but has very few possibilities to improve and it's showdown value is pretty weak.

    Problem with bluff catching is also that you can even lose to top of his bluffing range. KJ, KQ and K8 of clubs. Of course there are lot of busted draws and villain might only value bet Ax+ like this so depending of villain tendencies river call might be ok but likely too loose anyway.

    But imo you should have let go this on flop already.
     
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  11. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Yeah rarely KK+ and CO will be folding almost always so his chips give bit extra. Unknown can also do some random spew with few weaker Ax and so on. So I think AK, TT+ is pretty mandatory call.
     
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  12. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Preflop sizing is good. I would tend to bet bigger on flop. Fish will usually call anyway if he has something nice looking. But standard play overall and no way to fold river. Actually this is like one of best rivers to hope for.

    PS: I would not fold any river with these pot odds.
     
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  13. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

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    Hi there,

    that hand is surprisingly interesting. As a rule of thumb, if you have around 10bb sitting in BTN any Ax hand is a shove, some Aces are of course better than others, and against 3bet happy aggressive opponents you may want to induce with your top hands (like AK) with a minraise-call, but this rule works pretty good.

    So let's take a look at HRC:


    I think the nash-calling ranges are reasonable and as you can see Ax holds even for 12bb. Now this is obviously a thin shove. If you have any reads on your opponents you may want to play this hand differently, for example, if you know that in the blinds sits a loose cannon because you saw him making a call you thought was too loose in the past, then you could fold A2o here because it's likely he calls a bit too loose to risk your stack for such a thin shove. On the other end of the spektrum, you may have people in the blinds who are asleep at the wheel, who play very few hands (low VPIP) and have a very high fold to steal. There you could play this hand minraise-fold, if they really wake up and 3bet you, or call you, then you know you are likely beat and can lay the hand down and don't loose too much. But you really need good reasons and good reads for these plays, if you don't have them you should go for shoving every last hand that is even slightly profitable from late positions, especially small Aces which play terrible postflop.

    There is one other thing that is worth considering, which is the pre-bubble-factor, as I would call it. When the table gets shorthanded and you are 5 or 6 handed there can already be big ICM implications that could alter your standard ranges in situations like this.

    Consider these two examples:
    1)
    2)

    You are shoving for 10BB effective in both cases from BTN, but the stacksizes and your position in the tournament make a big difference. Like when you shove into someone who has you covered while there are stacks on the table that are shorter than you or close in size to you, you are risking more. When you shove into people who you can threaten with your stack you can shove looser because you risk less. This effect, that is usually at its maximum when you are 4handed, can also affect your shoving decissions in situations like the one you posted, also in the hand you posted you are tied at third place with one shorter stack behind you, you are attacking your direct competitor while shoving over someone in SB who has you covered, so in this case it shouldn't have that much of an effect, but there could be other cases where you have to adjust your shoving ranges.

    So long story short:
    -Ax for around 10bb from BU is usually good shove
    -There can be alternatives to a shove, like a minraise or a fold, depending on good reads or notes you have on players
    -You need good reasons (reads or notes) to not make profitable shoves from late position (even very thin ones)
    -When table gets shorter, meaning less players, and you are approaching the bubble, you should take a good look at stacksizes, at your position in the tournament and try to determine how much risk you are taking with shoves

    Hope that helps you. That's how I would approach this hand, but maybe one of the coaches wants to say something too. ;)

    PS If you are not using an ICM tool yet, you can sign up at http://www.icmpoker.com/, you can make 3 ICM calculations for free per day.
     

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  14. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I'd think that this is a pretty clear crying fold. A better hand than we generally would like to fold, but when we're looking at the situation, we really don't want to go in this hand or two next ones. As there will be at least two players forced all-in and if you're just folding, you will have a really solid claim to slip into money or third. If it's this hand's CO that will be eliminated, you will also avoid a BB which will have value.

    FGS in this hand is not perfect as FGS when it calculates the next hand will completely lose track of the situation and will make this hand's BB's range a lot wider than it should be when this hand's CO would be forced all-in on the next hand after that.

    For blankone's calculation, I think you have tried to oversimplify it too much. I would not think that opponents would go for 100% ranges after a limp here and if they would, limping would make pretty little sense. The point for limping is in hands where SB and BB are not going to shove for 100%. So I think that you have calculated the simple situation right, but I don't think in real life that the situation would be as simple. You could calculate it to check pretty easily with HRC to just calculate it as a basic hand and put everyone's range to 100% after your action. The result should be pretty much the same (difference will come from there being ties that are really hard to calculate in when you're doing it by hand). With those assumptions you'll pretty rarely encounter a situation which would be better than shoving here where you'll expect some fold equity. Especially since you're the second stack here, you really don't want to be involved in a big pot.
     
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  15. Christian

    Christian Active Member

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    The main thing in this hand is your own stack size. QQ could be a fold if you have nearly the same stack as MP+1. Lets say you have 19 BB and MP1 is pushing less than 50%, than you should call with KK+. In all other scenarios it's a no brainer call for me!
     
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  16. danitah

    danitah Well-Known Member

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    I think stacks are too shallow to just call yeah. Hands that are better to call with I guess would be like JT,QT,KJ. Btw I just noticed I gave Ghaleon his 500th Thank You on his last post. Congrats on 500 Thank You's, Ghaleon :D :tup:
     
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  17. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Well basically SB should be value betting pretty wide here. In his shoes I would tend to cbet wide as this flop just hits so much easier for him than BB. Though would good player open raise 3bb preflop is another question. 2.5bb would make more sense. But not main point.

    But I could see SB value range to have lot of Ax if he checks those on flop and some of better Kx like KQ at least. Well perhaps not KQ in river anymore. But KJ, J9, A3 or some mediocre Ax and possibly some slowplayed flop monsters could make sense. So if SB is folding all those two pair+ hands that are not strong flushes it would be extremely exploitable. Meaning likely optimal play for BB would be to turn lot of weaker made hands into bluff. After all by shoving he invests 358 to win 392. Obviously tiny bit of ICM included but you see problem for SB if he is only calling with strong flush? Either he will fold absurd amount of his river bet range (getting 1:3 pot odds) or he is value betting river way too tight range.

    PS: Well to be exact SB should also limp quite a lot versus good BB.
     
    #7 Ghaleon, Jun 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2017
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  18. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    You make bully chip leader life really easy if you fold nut hands like this :)
     
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  19. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    My default 3bet size would be around 10bb here. But more fishy you assume players to be the better and more reasonable it is to increase sizing. Flop is well played. I would not try to cbet versus two either as it quite rarely goes through. Villains tend to have reasonably strong range and most pocket pairs will see this as safe flop.

    In turn I would fold personally even if sizing is small for few reasons:
    - Its 3way pot so people semi bluff less generally
    - You have very few cards improving your hand. A or K of hearts wont change your relative hand strength. So 4 cards that will improve you. Is plan to call river if no draws complete?
    - Villain stats so far are extremely tight. Fact that we know what he had means its not such precise info, but overall it would suggest villain likely has strong range.
    - You still have one player to act behind you even though he is often folding.

    In river call is mandatory. Villain might shove weaker hand for value and all draws have missed.
     
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  20. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    I dont really like shoving this deep with pretty much anything. One ok option depending of villain could be limp-calling or raise-3bet shove. Raise-calling is just bit problematic as then we end up check-folding a ton versus possibly lot of air type hands. If you think about it this is not really that good spot in general for villain to be 3bet-calling that wide so what range he would likely do it?

    For SB open sizing in general I like to go higher than 2bb when with bit deeper stacks or not in such ICM heavy spot. E.g. opening bit over 2bb with 20bb+ stack is fine and maybe 3bb with 50bb+.
     
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  21. danitah

    danitah Well-Known Member

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    I don't think this is the question. Of course if we could choose we would want to win every tournament, but going for that is not the way to make most money. We have to take the whole prize structure into account and do our best to increase our overall equity, sometimes the best play will make you cash less often, and sometimes it will make you finish 1st less often.

    I think you know this very well already though ;)
     
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  22. danitah

    danitah Well-Known Member

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    Re: 9 man hyper: Folding AK/AQ after cbet and reraise all in

    Well it's just so hard for our opponent to hit the T, so cbetting is probably good and I think we can call a shove against unknown also, especially if we have 9:s:. I don't think check-calling with 99 is bad either though, so I would probably look for any reads I can get on villain, like if he is on the loose side he will be more likely to have a T from these positions and I would like to be more careful.

    In general I don't think we should bet-fold anything here unless we have absolute bluff. If we can't call a shove with a value hand here I think we are better off checking and calling a small to medium sized bet.
     
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  23. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Preflop check or shove are both ok. In turn I would definitely bet around 60-70.
     
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  24. blankone

    blankone Active Member

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    HRC shows 13,7% pushing range.
    If I calculate correctly bb is going to be first all in if we assume sb taking every spot and bling are the same.
    BB will have 1,2bb when he leave blinds.
    We are going to have 0,6bb when we leave blinds.
    In crucial hand BB has to pay 1bb and 0,1bb so if he folds he will have only to pay ante next hand.
    I prefer fold than limp but it is only my opinion.
    I am not sure in this spots we should think only about surviving or maybe also about double up and has chance to win.
     

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  25. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    If it would be his standard open size and he has been active I would definitely be shoving. Now when its not and also villain is clear second stack I would think his range is quite tight. 3bb open itself gives us lot better risk:reward for shove, but tough spot to say for sure where we are versus villain range and how much fold equity we have. So folding and shoving can be pretty close to each other. Like 99 I would never fold without really good reads on this spot.
     
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