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Well, if you don't believe the math it your thing. Of course it would be a good thing then to prove that the math of others is wrong. I would like...
You cant beat the math. You raise to 9, so the pot would be 18 and you would have 21 behind. Potting any flop is guaranteed +EV in the long run....
4bet there all day long. With Aces you can choose to get SPR 1 or SPR 4. You chose 4, I can't see a reason. Pot pre, shove any flop, and it's 100%...
You can't really think he would put you on a set when you just call the flop. When UTG minraises the turn, it doesn't really make sense for him...
I think that when he calls your pot raise on the flop, he has something that has equity vs your straight (what you are repping). That is pretty...
AJ22 is a clear fold from SB, specially 50bb deep.
If you raise flop and he calls, what is his range?
Problem is that when you raise, it sceams for nut flush. But you are oop to UTG, which is your main opponent (BB is effectively all-in already)....
Far from it.
Why 50bb, why open 2,5bb? At least open always for pot. On the flop, I doubt he has AJ. Might be AKhh or a set+fd. The easiest way is to raise...
