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Hand 15 - MTT

Discussion in 'Hand analysis' started by seanster, Mar 3, 2019.

  1. seanster

    seanster Member

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    Hi Guys

    I just wanted peoples opinions on this situation:

    Reads: Villain has very high F2CB.

    Blinds/Antes: 100/200/25

    Hero - 7:spade:J:diamond:

    7 Fold, Hero SB (8566) Raise to 500, BB (5649) Call 300.


    Flop (1225): Q:diamond:J:heart:5:diamond:

    Hero Check, Villain Bet 488, Hero Call 488.


    Turn (2201): Q:diamond:J:heart:5:diamond:3:club:

    Hero Check, Villain Bet 1232, Hero Call 1232.


    River (4665): Q:diamond:J:heart:5:diamond:3:club:A:diamond:

    Hero Check, Villain Bet 3404 (All-In), Hero ???


    Any comments much appreciated.
     
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  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

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    Usually I would not open raise hand like this. Work better in general as limp-fold. But if villain folds too much preflop then raise make sense. Postflop seems fine. Cbetting wont make much good overall as obviously better wont fold and while weaker might call you dont want to get raised plus aiming for pot control is good with mediocre hand like this. Jd is nice in check-call range as we can continue on diamond turns more easily even if villain barrel.

    Call flop and turn seems good as we dont block any of his semibluffs and block at least QJ. In general I would fold river unimproved pretty often even on blanks. We can have some of Qx which tend to be lot nicer as we block way more of villain value range.

    On this river we can have Ax though its bit questionable if plain top pair beats any of his value range. Anyway hand like KdJx would be lot better to call this river than our hand. Clear fold on this river as flush draws and KT get there so we can beat some T9, K9, maybe 4h6h if villain happens to be big bluffer. But usually if villain folds overly much to cbets its unlikely he would go for really ballsy 3 barrel bluffs imo. That sort of habit tends to indicate more of ABC player if sample size for stat is meaningful.

    If we think about hands we could have in river as clear call. Some A5, AxKd, AJ, QQ, JdTd and similar JdXd. Those Jx hands with flush draw are btw pretty great ones for check-call line as then you have showdown value for bluff catch hand and also coverage for flush completing boards.
     
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