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Hand 5 - MTT

Discussion in 'Hand analysis' started by seanster, Dec 9, 2018.

  1. seanster

    seanster Member

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    Hi Guys

    I just wanted peoples opinions on this situation:

    The sample size of hands I have on my opponent here is small and largely irrelevant.

    Blinds/Antes: 80/160/16

    Hero - A:diamond:A:spade:

    2 Fold, MP1 (16204) Raise to 320, 2 Fold, CO Hero (16323) Raise to 920, 3 Fold, MP1 Call 600.


    Flop (2224): 9:heart:3:heart:8:club:

    Villain Check, Hero Bet 920, Villain Call 920.


    Turn (4064): 9:heart:3:heart:8:club:9:diamond:

    Villain Check, Hero Check.


    River (4064): 9:heart:3:heart:8:club:9:diamond:2:spade:
    Villain Bet 2880, Hero ???



    Any comments much appreciated.
     
    #1 seanster, Dec 9, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2018
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  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

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    Preflop would prefer bit bigget 3bet as you are 100bb deep and there is antes in 9max table. So imo 3bet to 1100 or so would be better.

    Flop wont hit easily either player range but villain defintely has more nutty holdings like 33, 88, 99, 89s. Postflop seems good to me as long as we called river. Its not bad plan to bet turn and blank rivers but if you happen to face raise you will be in awkward spot and hands to check-call three streets are not necessarily that numerous. Mainly some QQ, JJ, TT and maybe some A8s or weak pocket once in a while.

    So I think check turn and call/value bet river is good line. In river this hand is really close to best we can have and we dont block any possible drawing hand that could be bluffing. So I see call as only possible option. Its totally plausible villain is value betting weaker overpairs and can be bluffing. Usually folding is extremely questionable if we beat even good portion of villain value range.

    E.g. if he value bets 33, 88, 99, 89s, 9Ts, 9Js, A9s which make around 3 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 14 combos that beat us. From overpairs lets say he bets QQ (lets say 2 combos), JJ (4 combos), TT (lets say 2 combos) so it would make 8 combos and we would beat around 1/3 of his value bets and if he defends pre hand like 89s then he most likely has stuff like QTs, TJs and such that could easily try bluffing so we quickly get more than 14 combos of weaker made hands or bluffs. Plus obviously we only need to win like 30% of time. So this should make call pretty obvious.

    Also villain might not be defending as wide as I suggested above so his value range can easily be smaller. Plus not accounting some weird bets with some 77 or Ax and such that people sometimes do...
     
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  3. seanster

    seanster Member

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    I called the bet and villain showed J:spade:Q:heart:.
     
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