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Mathematics of Spin & Go tournaments on PokerStars

Discussion in 'General discussions' started by Aarnimetsa, Oct 2, 2014.

  1. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
    Staff Member Poker Coach

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    Spin & Go's SNG is the newest tournament structure of PokerStars. It's a SNG where winner takes it all, games start at hyper turbo-alike 25bbs, 3 players enter. How it differs from regular SNGs is that you do not know how much you're playing for before the game starts. In case of 30$ SNG, you can be battling for 60$ prize or 30000$ prize. I'd presume this makes this format very popular with recreational players.

    On the other hand, when compared to the most similar game - Hyper Turbo headsups, rake seems to be on the high side in these games. For a equivalent stake Hyper Turbo headsup, rake is about twice that in Spin & Gos. Higher rake will be somewhat compensated for additional hands in the game and 3 minute blind levels instead of 2 minute blind levels. If you compare the games to 6-max Hyper Turbo SNGs, you will notice that blind length is higher and there are no antes in the games. Rake is at the same level as in 6-max SNGs, but I would presume it is harder to beat because of less hands per game.

    How to calculate the rake in Spin & Goes.

    You will need to calculate how big prizepool the different multipliers will do in certain amount of games. If we're thinking about 300000 games, players will pay 300000 buyins to take part. All the money that does not get returned to players will be rake. In the 1$ Spin & Go (first 3 levels will pay 120% of the multiplier):

    5 * 1200 + 10 * 240 + 15 * 120 + 80 * 25 + 1000 * 10 + 8000 * 6 + 13510 * 4 + 2 * 77380 = 279000

    300000 - 279000 = 21000

    So 21000 buyins will be taken as rake in 100000 Spin & Gos.

    21000 / 300000 * 100% = 7%

    So we can deduce, that rake is 7% exact at the 1$ Spin & Gos.

    How much do you need to win at Spin & Gos to be breakeven or winning player

    I will be converting the winning percentages to chips as well, so that you can use PokerTracker's or HoldemManager's own all in adjusted Equity chips to know quicker if you are a winning player in the games or not. With the all in adjusted equity, you will require about 3x less games to determine how well you're playing the structure.

    When rake is 7% exact at the 1$ Spin & Gos

    You'll need to have 35.9% or better winrate to be a breakeven player at 1$ Spin & Gos.
    This means you will have to win on average 38.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 37.7% or better winrate to be a +5% winner at 1$ Spin & Gos.
    This means you will have to win on average 65.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 39.5% or better winrate to be a +10% winner at 1$ Spin & Gos.
    This means you will have to win on average 92.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    Rake is 6% exact at the 3$ and 7$ Spin & Gos.

    You'll need to have 35.5% or better winrate to be a breakeven player at 3$ or 7$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 32 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 37.3% or better winrate to be a +5% winner at 3$ or 7$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 59.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 39.1% or better winrate to be a +10% winner at 3$ or 7$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 85.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    Rake is 5% exact at the 15$ and 30$ Spin & Gos.

    You'll need to have 35.1% or better winrate to be a breakeven player at 15$ or 30$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 26.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 36.9% or better winrate to be a +5% winner at 15$ or 30$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 53.5 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    You'll need to have 38.6% or better winrate to be a +10% winner at 15$ or 30$ Spin & Gos
    This means you will have to win on average 79 chips on every Spin & Go you play.

    Odds in hitting a certain type of Spin & Go

    1$ Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1000x buyin for the winner  (0.005%) - also pays 100x for second and third
    10    / 100000 = 200x buyin for the winner   (0.01%)  - also pays 20x for second and third
    15    / 100000 = 100x buyin for the winner   (0.015%) - also pays 10x for second and third
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyin for the winner    (0.08%)
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyin for the winner    (1%)     - 99.9% of starting 1$ Spin & Gos are between 2-10x
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyin for the winner     (8%)     - 98.9% of starting 1$ Spin & Gos are between 2-6x 
    13510 / 100000 = 4x buyin for the winner     (13.51%) - 90.9% of starting 1$ Spin & Gos are between 2-4x 
    77380 / 100000 = 2x buyin for the winner     (77.38%)
    3$ Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1000x buyin for the winner  (0.005%) - also pays 100x for second and third
    10    / 100000 = 200x buyin for the winner   (0.01%)  - also pays 20x for second and third
    15    / 100000 = 100x buyin for the winner   (0.015%) - also pays 10x for second and third
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyin for the winner    (0.08%)
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyin for the winner    (1%)     - 99.9% of starting 3$ Spin & Gos are between 2-10x
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyin for the winner     (8%)     - 98.9% of starting 3$ Spin & Gos are between 2-6x 
    16510 / 100000 = 4x buyin for the winner     (16.51%) - 90.9% of starting 3$ Spin & Gos are between 2-4x 
    74380 / 100000 = 2x buyin for the winner     (74.38%)
    7$ or higher Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1000x buyin for the winner  (0.005%) - also pays 100x for second and third
    10    / 100000 = 200x buyin for the winner   (0.01%)  - also pays 20x for second and third
    15    / 100000 = 100x buyin for the winner   (0.015%) - also pays 10x for second and third
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyin for the winner    (0.08%)
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyin for the winner    (1%)     - 99.9% of starting 7$ or higher Spin & Gos are between 2-10x
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyin for the winner     (8%)     - 98.9% of starting 7$ or higher Spin & Gos are between 2-6x 
    18010 / 100000 = 4x buyin for the winner     (18.01%) - 90.9% of starting 7$ or higher Spin & Gos are between 2-4x 
    72880 / 100000 = 2x buyin for the winner     (72.88%)
    How much your results will require hitting the highest tiers in the Spin-phase

    1$ Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1200x buyins in play (0.005%) - 2.2%  of money is distributed here
    10    / 100000 = 240x buyin in play   (0.01%)  - 0.9%  of money is distributed here
    15    / 100000 = 120x buyin in play   (0.015%) - 0.6%  of money is distributed here
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyins in play   (0.08%)  - 0.7%  of money is distributed here
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyins in play   (1%)     - 3.6%  of money is distributed here
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyins in play    (8%)     - 17.2% of money is distributed here
    13510 / 100000 = 4x buyins in play    (13.51%) - 19.4% of money is distributed here 
    77380 / 100000 = 2x buyins in play    (77.38%) - 55.4% of money is distributed here
    Top levels that you will hit on average only once in 1000 games (0.1% of your games) are distributing 4.4% of the money in the structure. The top level you are going to hit once in 20000 games (0.005%) is distributing 2.2% of the money in the structure.

    3$ Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1200x buyins in play (0.005%) - 2.1%  of money is distributed here
    10    / 100000 = 240x buyin in play   (0.01%)  - 0.8%  of money is distributed here
    15    / 100000 = 120x buyin in play   (0.015%) - 0.6%  of money is distributed here
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyins in play   (0.08%)  - 0.7%  of money is distributed here
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyins in play   (1%)     - 3.5%  of money is distributed here
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyins in play    (8%)     - 16.8% of money is distributed here
    16510 / 100000 = 4x buyins in play    (16.51%) - 23.2% of money is distributed here
    74380 / 100000 = 2x buyins in play    (74.38%) - 52.2% of money is distributed here
    Top levels that you will hit on average only once in 1000 games (0.1% of your games) are distributing 4.2% of the money in the structure. The top level you are going to hit once in 20000 games (0.005%) is distributing 2.1% of the money in the structure.

    7$ or higher Spin & Go

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1200x buyins in play (0.005%) - 2.1%  of money is distributed here
    10    / 100000 = 240x buyin in play   (0.01%)  - 0.8%  of money is distributed here
    15    / 100000 = 120x buyin in play   (0.015%) - 0.6%  of money is distributed here
    80    / 100000 = 25x buyins in play   (0.08%)  - 0.7%  of money is distributed here
    1000  / 100000 = 10x buyins in play   (1%)     - 3.5%  of money is distributed here
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyins in play    (8%)     - 16.7% of money is distributed here
    18010 / 100000 = 4x buyins in play    (18.01%) - 25.0% of money is distributed here
    72880 / 100000 = 2x buyins in play    (72.88%) - 50.6% of money is distributed here
    Top levels that you will hit on average only once in 1000 games (0.1% of your games) are distributing 4.2% of the money in the structure. The top level you are going to hit once in 20000 games (0.005%) is distributing 2.1% of the money in the structure.

    Why does this matter?

    There is a 1.5% chance that you will NOT hit a higher than 10x multiplier in 5000 games.
    There is a 5.3% chance that you will NOT hit a higher than 10x multiplier in 3000 games.

    There is a 95% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 1000 games.
    There is a 77% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 3000 games.
    There is a 62.5% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 5000 games.
    There is a 42.1% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 10000 games.
    There is a 24.2% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 20000 games.
    There is a 7.4% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 50000 games.
    There is a 1.5% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 100000 games.

    I'd think reasonable upper bound for yearly volume is about 50000 games for the most active grinder in Spin & Gos. The player might go for a year with 7.4% chance of never hitting the highest level. Effectively the player would need to be winning at least 2.2% in the games to be breakeven for that year.

    If you're a clearly winning player in Spin & Gos and you will win 37% of your games.

    There is a 1% chance that you will not win any of 10 games.
    There is a 10% chance that you will not win any of 5 games.

    So the most active grinder in the games, if he hits 1000x prizepools every 20000 games would still have 1% chance for not winning a single 1000x game IN FOUR YEARS! So he would effectively need to be winning at least at 1.8% in the games to be just breakeven in the meanwhile.

    If he hits 1000x prizepools every 20000 games, he would still have a 10% chance for not winning the 1000x game IN TWO YEARS!

    I would think that if you would want to play Spin & Gos professionally, you would have to be among the highest volume grinders and have at least 5% ROI for you to be expecting monthly results. If you're just over breakeven (1-2%) in the games, you can go for years without winning money even if you are among the highest volume grinders.

    I will be splitting this article in two parts and in the next part we will be discussing about simulations for different types of Spin & Go Players, what kind of bankroll is required and what would be the life of a Spin & Go player.
     
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  2. Syllogism

    Syllogism New Member

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    Awesome article!
     
  3. Thatsnotart

    Thatsnotart New Member

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    Awesome! Shows perfectly what kind of crap they are :D
     
  4. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I had an interesting question on Skype about how to calculate what the amount of chips you win per game actually mean ROI-wise.

    Formula to calculate that would be:

    ((chips won per game + 500) / 1500 * (prize pool minus rake in % * 3) - 1) * 100

    If you would for example win 60 chips on average per game and you're playing 7$ or higher Spin & Go's, the formula would be:

    ((60 + 500) / 1500 * (0.96 * 3) - 1) * 100 = 7.52% ROI

    If you would for example win 50 chips on average per game and you're playing 3$ Spin & Gos, the formula would be:

    ((50 + 500) / 1500 * (0.95 * 3) - 1) * 100 = 4.5% ROI

    Or if you would win for example 40 chips on average per game and you're playing 1$ Spin & Gos, the formula would be:

    ((40 + 500) / 1500 * (0.93 * 3) - 1) * 100 = 0.44% ROI
     
  5. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    A quick comparison on different structures:

    New $1 Spin & Gos

    Code:
    1     / 100000 = 3600x buyins in play (0.001%) - 1.3%  of money is distributed here
    5     / 100000 = 240x buyin in play   (0.005%) - 0.4%  of money is distributed here
    10    / 100000 = 120x buyin in play   (0.010%) - 0.4%  of money is distributed here
    100   / 100000 = 25x buyins in play   (0.1%)   - 0.9%  of money is distributed here
    500   / 100000 = 10x buyins in play   (0.5%)   - 1.8%  of money is distributed here
    7500  / 100000 = 6x buyins in play    (7.5%)   - 16.1% of money is distributed here
    18366 / 100000 = 4x buyins in play    (18.37%) - 26.3% of money is distributed here 
    73518 / 100000 = 2x buyins in play    (73.52%) - 52.7% of money is distributed here
    New $3 and $7 Spin & Gos

    Code:
    1     / 100000 = 3600x buyins in play (0.001%) - 1.3%  of money is distributed here
    5     / 100000 = 240x buyin in play   (0.005%) - 0.4%  of money is distributed here
    10    / 100000 = 120x buyin in play   (0.010%) - 0.4%  of money is distributed here
    100   / 100000 = 25x buyins in play   (0.1%)   - 0.9%  of money is distributed here
    500   / 100000 = 10x buyins in play   (0.5%)   - 1.8%  of money is distributed here
    7500  / 100000 = 6x buyins in play    (7.5%)   - 16.0% of money is distributed here
    19866 / 100000 = 4x buyins in play    (19.87%) - 28.2% of money is distributed here 
    72018 / 100000 = 2x buyins in play    (72.02%) - 51.1% of money is distributed here
    New $15 and $30 Spin & Gos

    Code:
    1     / 100000 = 3600x buyins in play (0.001%) - 1.3%  of money is distributed here
    5     / 100000 = 240x buyin in play   (0.005%) - 0.4%  of money is distributed here
    10    / 100000 = 120x buyin in play   (0.010%) - 0.4%  of money is distributed here
    100   / 100000 = 25x buyins in play   (0.1%)   - 0.9%  of money is distributed here
    500   / 100000 = 10x buyins in play   (0.5%)   - 1.8%  of money is distributed here
    7500  / 100000 = 6x buyins in play    (7.5%)   - 15.8% of money is distributed here
    21366 / 100000 = 4x buyins in play    (21.37%) - 30.0% of money is distributed here 
    70518 / 100000 = 2x buyins in play    (70.52%) - 49.5% of money is distributed here
    A bit of a surprise, but even with a higher top prizepool that happens more rarely, it might actually be that new Spin & Go structure would be of less variance than the old Spin & Go structure. Basically, previously the 1200x prizepool game paid out the same amount that is now paid out combined by the tournaments occurring more rarely than once in 1000 games. So previously the top 3 prizepools paid combined of 10200 buyins out of every 100000 games, now they're paying out 6000 buyins. Also the distribution seems to be more towards 4x games, that should lessen variance even more.
     
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  6. EnvoY

    EnvoY New Member

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    Hi Aarnimetsa, first of all great article,
    at the beginning of november i started an account on pokerstars and i deposit 60$, i tried a spin and go for the first time, a 3$, ( i heard, but i didnt read anything about it yet), Litterly the first game i played the game was desided with a 360$ Pot, (i really was like WTF, how is this profitible for pokerstars).
    I won it luckyly.
    Now im 325 games later and i found out i was very lucky (http://puu.sh/cCXMv/8460f55862.png), 1:10.000,
    but anyway what i wanted to ask is how do you define your winrate exactly at the spin and go turbos, i played like 300 now at the $1 and im 31$ down due high variance and bad decisions, could you help me analyze my stats about were to were my leaks are , i think my avg flop allin EV, avg Allin EV% are to low and im shoving to much crap?
    or do you think i need a way bigger sample size to determine my winrate.
    oh and where is the second article about the bankroll and the life of a spin and go player?
    im a recreational player btw, and new to this forum.)
    (my stats
    http://puu.sh/cUqLh/656835a4c0.png)

    thanks for the respond.
     
  7. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    First of all, welcome to the forum!

    I do not know does $EV work in HEM2. It doesn't work on PT4 for sure.

    There are not a lot of stats on your picture that I could use to figure out what's going on with your game. Most important stat that I see here is the Net Won Chips. All-In adjusted chips won would be even better. Out of those stats I can see that you have finished in the money 32.4% of the time and because of the rake in the games, you would need to finish in the money 35.9% of the time to be breaking even in the long run. Out of the stats I can also see that you're finishing third quite often, which would worry me a bit. Usually winning players in this format do not finish that often in third. It's usually really hard to get an understanding of someone's game by just stats, it's usually better to post hands in hand analysis and post your own thoughts about the hand. Then someone responding can also correct your thought process in approaching the hands.

    Luckily, this is a format that you can be a winner over a short sample even if your game is not winning in the long run. I can't say that you would likely be a winning player right now, so I'd think the smartest move is to play the lowest limit (as you have done) and try to learn in that limit before moving up.

    The second article about bankroll management is not done yet. I have been more busy than I would think and these Spin & Gos are full of nonlinearities that you can't see in other formats. The nonlinearities make it really hard to calculate good bankroll requirements for the games. The math I'm used to just falls through at some point and I'll need to resort in simulations. Currently I know a lot about not going broke in Spin & Gos, but I'm not sure what would be optimal for growing the bankroll, so I'll publish the numbers only after I'll find that out.
     
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  8. EnvoY

    EnvoY New Member

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    Thanks for the reply
    my EV adj Chips would be like 10.000 http://puu.sh/cWyCx/2c3ff04b3e.png
    so at least its positive
    further typical hands i loose are hands like these, i play them to agressivly and overextend my hand

    Hand1 http://www.pokerhand.org/?6711461 (i couldnt laydown on flop because i was thinking i had the best hand preflop)
    Hand2 http://www.pokerhand.org/?6711462 (i had a read he was not helding a K or higher and the minmin raise really felt weak to me)
    Hand3 http://www.pokerhand.org/?6711463 (i thought he minsraised the button weaker then my QKo so i pushed)
    Hand4 http://www.pokerhand.org/?6711464 (i thought i could minraise the J7 on the button and could play it in position, on the flop i thought i had showdown value if i pushed)
    Hand5 http://www.pokerhand.org/?6711465 (i really dont know why i risk 23BB with 55, i thought 55 are to strong 3handed, and it was just variance i lossed)
    Hand6 http://www.pokerhand.org/?6711466 ( thought AJ was to strong 3handed to fold against a button raise so i pushed preflop against his raise)

    maybe im thinking to much about it was just variance and maybe my i have great leaks to repair, sometimes i get very uncertain about my non rational decisions i can make, and 10 seconds after the decision i regret my mistake because i know it,i know its not good for my mindset and i know what EV+ poker looks like but in some way i making this radical decisions to often, often its because i get to greedy en think i already won or i think my skill on average is higher then the guys on the table, and it works against me and i loose vs "noobs"

    i dont have really training shedules since im a recreational player, so im playing this spin and goes whenever i can, and it may work against me sometimes in a loosing streak
    do you think a shedule about how many games you play and how long you play would be better then just spamming 1$'s whenever you can?
    also i only play 1 table because i think i can concentrate more, but in the long run im making maybe more short term game ending decisions,
    since you have a more end game view on average with more tables active
    You dont get seduced more easily in pots you would fold more often with multi tables i think. but then multi table the pressure is higher to end at least a few in the money to make it profitble.

    Im looking forward for your next article about your view on how not going broke in spin and goes and the life of a spin and go player, really it sounds interesting :)
     
  9. veX_ouy

    veX_ouy New Member

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    Very nice work! I have to ask: "why do you say you need 35.9% winrate to breakeven in the $1s?"

    I calculate it like this: 100/3 + 7/3 (rake) = 35.66% (required edge, ignoring rakeback!) Seems pretty easy, right?

    Looking forward to your next articles! Thanks!
     
  10. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Problem with your calculations is, that the games aren't 1$ + 0.07$. It would work though for that exact structure. I find it a bit weird way to calculate the required edge. The rake is a bit more when you'll compare it to the part of the buyin going in the prizepool, so you would need to first calculate that:

    0.07 / 0.93 = 0.0753

    Then calculate using that:

    100/3 + 7.53/3 = 35.84%

    I have rounded the numbers upwards in my calculations to be on the safe side.

    So it's a bit weird way to calculate, especially as rake is now pretty commonly referred as compared to the whole buyin and not against the amount of the buyin that goes in the prizepool.
     
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  11. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Well, you can see from that that you should be winning at 36 chips / game, which means that likely you're better than the average opponent (any positive value in EV Adjusted chips means that), unfortunately it will not be enough to win after rake:

    ((36 + 500) / 1500 * (0.93 * 3) - 1) * 100 = -0.3% expected ROI

    You might get slightly positive after the value of player points you will accumulate in the games and you are not that likely to lose a lot.

    Put them at: hand-analysis-f205/ and post your thoughts and where you are not sure what is the correct thing to do. One hand per post, then it's way easier to respond. Usually if I see multiple hands in one post, I just don't respond because I'll know it takes ages to write a response. Also it's a lot better if you post the hands to forum straight away, it takes time and concentration to open the hands in third party website and then try to answer, compared to if the hand is visible all the time.

    Often times, the leaks you're not aware of are the worst. Not the leaks you're aware of and would know instantly after pressing the button that you did a stupid move.

    I'd think poker is a game that you can have fun by just playing, but if you want to learn to win in poker, you'll need to dedicate some time for studying poker. Poker is a really hard game due to all the variance in game to learn just by playing. I'd think pros require scheduling to get enough games in but if poker is your hobby, just play when you feel like it and have fun :)

    It's practically the same thing, do you play a single table or do you multitable. Optimal decisions would be the same. Only question is how close to optimal you can get in the way you're playing. It might require more brain power to not get seduced by good hands and not trying to force action since you'll have just one table and you'll need to wait for your opponents.

    Next articles will mostly concern bankroll management, I'd think I have said a lot about the technical skills to beat the game on my videos.
     
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  12. EnvoY

    EnvoY New Member

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    to bad your spin and gos videos are not in english so i didnt catch a thing of the technical elements of spin and gos on your youtube channel, i would be interested in it.
    Thanks for the reply anyway, maybe im gonna post spin and gos hands now in the future :)
     
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  13. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I might be doing some videos about Spin & Gos in English in the future, there should be at least two videos to come.
     
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  14. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

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    @EnvoY: There is one Spin&Go video by Aarni in english:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABOKgqRWYHM
     
    #14 Neo1186, Nov 20, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 12, 2016
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  15. EnvoY

    EnvoY New Member

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    Thanks for the link :)
     
  16. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I did slight updating to the first post for how many chips you'll need to win per game in order to be certain % winner. The formulas introduced later work even after the rake changes.

    I noticed there's still a lot of updating to do, to make the first post good enough after the changes.
     
  17. GuliverGumba

    GuliverGumba New Member

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    Hey Aarnimetsa,

    I would like to do some other math on Spins, I tried to calculate the formula for 7$ spins excluding hitting 100x or higher buy in: like how much chips/toruney do we need to be break even considering we never hit 100x buyin or higher...

    original formula for 7's : ((32 + 500) / 1500 * (0.94 * 3) - 1) * 100 = break even roi preRB including 100x buyin or higher

    1*3600 buy in + 5*240 buy in + 10*120 buy in = 6000 buyins

    6000/100000games=0,06 buy ins per game that we pay for 100x or higher spins

    0,06*7$= 0,42$ that we pay per game for 100x or higher spins? am i correct so far?

    if yes then the new formula would be like this? :
    ((69 + 500) / 1500 * (0.88 * 3) - 1) * 100 = break even roi preRB excluding 100x buyin or higher?


    please help me out,

    tyvm in advance

    best regards,

    GuliverG
     
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  18. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    The problem in your calculations is that you're looking at the games as if there would be just one player. In 100000 games there however are 300000 buyins and you have calculated it correctly that you're taking out 6000 extra buyins, but it isn't 6% what is taken for the highest games, it's closer to 2%. So the new formula for 7s would be:

    ((44 + 500) / 1500 * (0.92 * 3) - 1) * 100

    Excellent question though.
     
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  19. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    On the 5$ - 1 million Spin & Gos. Just don't.

    The main prize takes up 2.5% of the prizepool. Rake is 1% higher than at 7s. In total, the amount of jackpot rake is 1.5% higher. So there will be about 2.3% more rake pressure for the players in the games. I just can't find any sensible idea to play those games, since with a similar bankroll you should always select 7$ games instead of those 5$ games. Like 7$ games would require less bankroll and would result in higher earnings in general.

    I don't even think they would be worth it because of how much they'll draw weak players. At least I didn't find a lot of difference between the 7$s and 5$s, when I played the 15 of those that is required for mission week. It of course might be that just by the introduction of those, the 7s and 15s might get tougher and then there might be sense in 5$ games.

    I'd also think that there is a very high probability of those being the most popular Spin & Go game available. Even though they're not good games for regs by any means. If I'd have to guess, about half of the running Spin & Gos will be those during the month and it will result in multiple Spin & Go millionaires during the month. I'm just afraid to death that they'll carry on that structure on to other Spin & Gos later on and make them for sure bad games for regs to play.
     
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  20. GuliverGumba

    GuliverGumba New Member

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    thank you for ur answer, i knew i did something wrong. ty.

    best regards,

    GuliverG
     
  21. fagaldu

    fagaldu New Member

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    Aarnimetsa do you think it makes no sense to play Spin & go ?
     
  22. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Welcome to the forums!

    Right now I think that it makes sense to play Spin & Gos professionally, if you're among the absolute best players in the game. Even if you're among the best players in the game, if you're matched up in a match with another top reg and a random, you'll expect to be breaking even at most. So the games are really sensitive to changes in player pool and will be unplayable if they will go to a level where there are on average 2 good players a table.

    I'd think that if you'll get your post rakeback results to 4% or better, the games can be grinded. If you can't, the bankroll requirements will grow completely insane. Right now the player pool does have enough players you want to get in your games and the regs are having a lot of trouble adjusting, so I'd think right now the games are grindable but I can't know about the future.

    Of course, if you're playing them just for fun, the games are great. You'll get instant action no matter the time and I like the structure with constant action a lot.
     
  23. Anaspe

    Anaspe New Member

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    I check every day there is a new article about BRM :roll:
     
  24. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Sorry, I have just been too busy with other stuff and BRM requires some extra thinking on top of what I thought before. A very preliminary guide for minimum bankroll depth for a professional player (can not replenish bankroll if it is lost) would be close to:

    1% expected ROI post-rakeback - 1400 buyins.
    2% expected ROI post-rakeback - 800 buyins.
    3% expected ROI post-rakeback - 500 buyins.
    4% expected ROI post-rakeback - 250 buyins.
    5% expected ROI post-rakeback - 100 buyins. (Notice, about 4% of the prizepool is divided to the games that happen once in thousand games or less, so a player with larger than 4% ROI is expected to win even when he isn't hitting the highest prizepools in lotteries).
    7% expected ROI post-rakeback - 75 buyins.
    9% expected ROI post-rakeback - 50 buyins.

    I would recommend using at least twice the bankroll of the minimum seen here.

    There are still nonlinearities that I do not like, for example the gap between 1% and 2% is not big enough (it should be more than twice as big, by logic). So there are flaws and I know it. They are based on risk of ruin during a long term run. The nonlinearities involved make simulating / calculating it a harder task than something without a lottery element.
     
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  25. virppa

    virppa Well-Known Member

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    Thank you Aarni for the good work you have done.

    I took liberty to do some Kelly calculations for different stakes on Excel. These are based on ChipEV/Tournament. Required buyins are always rounded up. Calculations take into account 2nd and 3rd places in bigger multiplier tournaments. All ROI figures are without RB.

    In general I would recommend using the half Kelly column as the minimum BRM:

    1$:

    3$ & 7$:

    15$ and bigger:
     

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