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Mathematics of Spin & Go tournaments on PokerStars

Discussion in 'General discussions' started by Aarnimetsa, Oct 2, 2014.

  1. dirtyphoenix

    dirtyphoenix New Member

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    Really interesting post @Aarnimesta. I have one query about how you worked out the probability of an outcome not occuring, "There is a 1.5% chance that you will NOT hit a higher than 10x multiplier in 5000 games." for example.

    My basic probability knowledge led me to the belief that it was simply:

    (1-Probablity of 25x and above multipliers)^5000

    But I gather this is wrong and too simple.

    It would be really great to find out how!

    Thanks
     
  2. Kimsing

    Kimsing New Member

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    Great post for sure! I registered an account here just to be able to follow this post!

    I've played about 10,000 spins at the highest levels and I would be keen to discuss different approaches to the games with others that are grinding the same levels. Also if less experienced or recreational players need a few words of advice, I'd be happy to help!

    So far my 60$ winrate is 37,9% with a RoI of 4,07% (no jackpots so far)
    My 30$ stats are 38,4% WR, 11,1% RoI (one big win included)
     
  3. weetux

    weetux New Member

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    Hi,

    could you please share some information how does your cEV results compares to your real $ results. Are they the same in terms of ROI?
     
  4. Kimsing

    Kimsing New Member

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    When i posted this my cEV was around 74 chips/tournament with an EV BB/100 of around 10. I guess I've been running a bit below EV in terms of RoI, but It's hard to count the RoI when the chance of getting a big jackpot is quite slim.

    Results have been better the last few weeks tough as I've been trying to lessen the variance and all-in preflop situations against non-regular players. They usually have quite a few leaks, and It's easier to exploit if you play them for a while.
     
  5. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Really big thanks to virppa for an awesome post using Kelly's formula for the games and going about it on how many chips you are earning rather than ROI. Usually that is the number more people are familiar with in these games.
     
  6. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I think you are correct. I should go through that article again as there might be some spots that are mixed with the previous structure of spins and some are from the current structure. Most of the numbers are from simulations where I simulated few million games and divided it up into chunks where I found something interesting. Inaccuracies shouldn't be that high though, as right now for 0.11% probability of a higher than 10x game I will get about 0.4-0.6% now (depending if I use 0.1% or 0.11%) and 1.5% is the number in the article.

    Right now I know I don't have the time, but if there are more people interested, I could do a ground up rewrite in the future.
     
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  7. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Generally for a player that has played 10000 games and they have not hit it well in the high jackpot games, I'd believe that they have generally between 2-3% lower ROI than what their chip EV would suggest. Of course, if someone hits 3000x game in the 10000 games he plays and wins it, they will be pretty close to 30% over the ROI their chipEV would suggest...
     
  8. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    To add another note, on virppa's post, the full Kelly numbers are about minimal bankroll if you know your edge already. I don't think there is ever a reason to play a game with less than a full Kelly criterion bankroll.

    Might be a bit icky between 1$ and 3$ levels though when buyin multiplies by 3 and there might be spots where 3$ games would earn a player more when he's under full Kelly but would be way over half kelly in 1$ games. Probably an optimal bankroll management strategy would be mixing the games for a while before moving up into 3$s completely.
     
  9. virppa

    virppa Well-Known Member

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    Mr. Hindsight to the rescue:
    I think even more optimal would be to start with 1$-2,5$-5$ games at FTP. Game structure is totally the same(?) but you pay 1% less rake in 1$ games. Also the 5$ should be a good stepping stone between 3$ and 7$ buyins.(same goes for 10$ games on FTP) There should be more than enough games starting still at those levels?

    Unfortunately I haven´t done any calculations for BRM requirements on FTP but I suppose its going to be close to PS requirements, maybe even a tad less.
     
  10. olistr

    olistr New Member

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    sry guys, I did read whole thread but dont get it how much chip ev per game I need exclude 100x 200x 3600x
    to be break even or have 3% ev roi
    so if I will never hit bigger then 25x
    thanks

    I would like to know it for games with 5% rake
     
  11. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Basically, if you exclude 120x, 240x and 3600x games, you are paying for 2% more effective rake. You will require approximately 36.9% ITM to do it, which corresponds to about 53.5 chips EV per game. It will be less if you calculate in RB, but for practical reasons of grindability, usually I'd say you can grind the games if you're making 50 chips or more as a rough guideline.
     
  12. olistr

    olistr New Member

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    can you show me how you get that numbers and also where I do mistakes

    I calculated that in 100k games we play for 279k buins excluded top 3 prices so
    100/279=0.358 so 35.8% we need winrate for BE
    and so we need 37 chips ev per game
    (37+500) / 1500 = 0.358 = 35.8%
     
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  13. danitah

    danitah Well-Known Member

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    Seems correct. Aarnimetsa calculated it for 3% ROI I think.
     
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  14. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I didn't even see the question for both breakeven and 3% EV ROI, I just saw the 3% there and calculated for 3%. So Danitah is correct.
     
  15. justreg

    justreg New Member

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    Am I unlucky or my play is too bad. What does my cEV diff shows ?
    Can s.o. help ?
    [​IMG]
     
  16. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    cEV Diff shows what has been the difference between EV Adjusted and real winnings in chips.

    I probably don't see enough stats in there, as your net won in chips seems to be -4740 chips, which as negative should result in ITM of under 33.3%, but your ITM has been 34.1%. Basically to know if you're playing well enough for the games to be grindable I would need to know the real amount of chips won and EV chips won. As these stats seem to be incomplete or wrong, it's hard to tell.
     
  17. justreg

    justreg New Member

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    The HM stats are for $3 spin&go buyin
    893 games
    winnings: $2328
    net winings : -$351
    $EV: $2526
    ROI : -13,1%
    ITM%: 32,9%
    hands:18292
    cips net won: -4740
    cEV diff: 35027
    $EV diff: 198
     
  18. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Those are same numbers that are on the picture above, which can't be true for the reasons I outlined. Also for about 1500 Spins, I'd think it's likely that there are about 30000 played hands. You might have some filter on the hands there?
     
  19. danitah

    danitah Well-Known Member

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    His ITM is 32.9% for $3 spins and 34.1% overall. Seems to make sense for me when he has lost 5K chips in $3s? The 18K hands is only for $3 spins with 893 games played also.
     
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  20. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Thanks danitah, I just didn't understand the stats. Has been some time since I have used HEM2.

    These stats are what is important. So we can deduce here that EV chips would be -4740 + 35027 = ~30300 , when we divide it up on the amount of games, we'll get about 34 EV Chips per game. Basically during the time at 3s, it is quite likely that you have been quite close to a breakeven player in the 3$ games. Even with 900 games, there will be plenty of variance in the numbers, but that will probably be my closest estimate.
     
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  21. virppa

    virppa Well-Known Member

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    You have to add EV $ chips stat to the line to get better understanding overall:

    1: To add new stat column press "Stats" on left side of the screen.

    2: Write "chip" to search field, select "EV $ Chips" on right side, press arrow pointing left. Finally use up/down arrows to get the stat to plave you want it to be and press OK.

    EDIT: Or just do what Aarni did. (Damn beat me to it...) :)
     

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  22. justreg

    justreg New Member

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    thanks, somehow ~120 buyins behind seems quite bad run for just 893 games.
     
  23. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I'd estimate it's around the worst 2% of runs. So like 49 out of 50 would run better than you, but there would be players running worse than you as well. These games are certainly not fun to play if you're close to breakeven. Long run can be heartbreakingly long in these. Of course, if you're about having fun, it's also possible to run unbelievably hot in the games.
     
  24. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I did quick simulations comparing the 3000x main prize structure to 10000x prize structure that is now offered. Basically they have kept the amount of money going to a prize pool players very rarely hit about the same and rest of the prize pools are almost the same. Basically when I did simulations comparing the two prizepools, for bankroll management considerations they're exactly the same still.

    Now there's just a possibility to run even better if you're really lucky.

    There might be more value in the games now when I'd think they will be more enticing for a general gambler.
     
  25. MarkMeFish

    MarkMeFish New Member

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    Hello there ! Im new to the forums and to pokermania community so cheers for all :) ...

    I really have some questions about spin i hope this is the place ...
    Im a winning reg on my limits, FR and 6-max.
    But ofc i want to play where i can gain most edge on playerpool, since im a bum hunter type /table seat select old school style ..
    So i want to know if there is any opinion on changing form to spin & go would it worth it in a big way, since of the recreational playerpool? I have 0 experience in sit&go or hyper formats i dont even know whats a good ROI to have on these games or how to transform ROI in to $/hour or to winrate like in CG bb/100 ...

    I want to know since for me it is a shove fest for first look. :P that what kind of deep strategy is needed to kick off i mean where to look at to start off?
    I found vid packs and charts for 300$ but, im not sure those worth the $ so i really want to know my options ..
    And this format is closer to HUSNG /hyper or hyper turbo SNG?
    And is the nash play a big chunk of the game beeing really good, or you stil can play exploitative?
    And where and how to pick up population tendencies since you need to play a lot against unknowns or what advice you would give to start off investing the work on table and off table how do you improove in these games ...

    And i saw Aarnimetsa offering coaching is that for spin aswell ? ... Thank you for all answers GL on the tables :)
     
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