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Mathematics of Spin & Go tournaments on PokerStars

Discussion in 'General discussions' started by Aarnimetsa, Oct 2, 2014.

  1. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    I would say spin&go is closest of hyper HUSNG. There is no ICM concerns (winner takes all) so having no earlier sng or mtt experience is not problem. For cash game player its probably actually easier as there is no need to "throw away" ICM thinking.

    With 25bb there is still room for play outside of shove or fold and most of time making open shove that deep is unoptimal play. I would guess how to play with small stacks can be somewhat problematic for someone coming from cach games. When to go for minraise, open shove or open limp. When to defend by flatting or 3betting. I think Aarnimetsa can give lot of help to these for spin&go as he did play only these for decently long period.

    One of surprising side for cash player (or anyone else) might also be variance of this format. From my knowledge point I would have hard time to recommend changing to spin&go. Not easy format to play professionally.
     
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  2. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Welcome to the forums!

    I'd think for cash game players there will be quite a hard transition period, especially if you haven't played a lot of headsup. The games are completely different when you're typically maximum of 25 big blinds deep and on average I think you're about 13-14bbs deep during the game. If you're a bum hunter type, spins are not in general for you, as there is now no possibility to game select. Problem for spins are, that even if you're having a certain ROI, if you're not hitting the highest multipliers, the ROI you're going to get is going to be 2% less. Generally I have said that these games are grindable if you're making 4% ROI or more, so that you can almost every month expect to make money. I'd think that the best players playing only a few tables are making somewhere in between of 6-8% in the lower stakes, but I'd think 4% is quite close to what is achievable at 30$ and up.

    Right now it's still a bit in the air what is possible since PokerStars has removed all the options to game select and I'm following it with interest how regs ROIs will change now.

    What kind of deep strategy is needed is just to be really good at short stacked situations. Format is closer to hyper HUSNGs, for me it was quite a journey to unlearn everything about ICM while multitabling these (and then when I got back to 6-max and 9-max hypers, it has been a journey again to relearn ICM...).

    I'd think these games are really far away from just Nash, the reason mainly being that when you'll need to achieve 9-11% edge in just 20-25 hands, you'll need to be very exploitative. I'd think it's mostly an exercise to have a really solid standard strategy that exploits usual opponents and then adjust to being more unexploitable against better opponents.

    You'll pick up population tendencies by analyzing them, practically it takes more time than in 6-max as you'll get only 1-2 opponents with you on the table at the same time. In general I would think that for you it would mean a lot of basics work on playing shortstacked.

    As Ghaleon said, for a cash game players these games are from another planet with their variance. You can be 500 buyins under EV in 10000 games and you can be 300 buyins under EV in a single month. Just a friendly warning.

    I'm still offering coaching for spins as well and can help you with the analysis part and shortstacked part a lot.
     
  3. MarkMeFish

    MarkMeFish New Member

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    Thank you for all answers ! :)
    So its like learning poker again ... Thats ok i guess!
    Got some charts, and ICMizer to work with. I will give it a shot, and see whats up.
    If i can transform thats good, if i can not than i will just go back where i know my edge, i give myself 150 BI for the lowest limit and build up from there ..
    Will keep posted about it how it went and some hands too it might help others new in this ...

    ( :P basicly chasing down the recrational playerpool is bumhunting too in a way )
     
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  4. blankone

    blankone Active Member

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    Something about spins.
     

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  5. danitah

    danitah Well-Known Member

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    Well one way to look at it would be that your EV for every spin&go should be calculated as if the prize pool was buyin minus rake. Of course it doesn't really work in real games, but you'll have a certain 'expected ROI' in spins, it just won't look that pretty on the graph. Also EV line of SNG player is not going to be a straight line ;)
     
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  6. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I'd think this is mostly a comparison of results lines, not EV lines. If you're looking at EV$ line of a profitable SNG player and a EV graph from chipev at Spins graph, I'd say that my Spins EV is steadier. Even the EV line with multipliers taken into account isn't that different from a SNG EV graph.

    Results on the other hand, for sure are not steadier. Feelings are going with the same rollercoaster in Spins.
     
  7. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I think on our yesterday's session I stumbled upon a good and easy explanation why I don't think the million dollar SNG is a promotion at all. PokerStars charges 1% higher rake for million dollar Spins than they charge for comparable buyin level SNGs.

    Every time a million dollar award is given out (3 out of 10 million in 5$s, 3 out of 100 million in 0.5$s). In 0.5s, it means 100 million extra rake percentages taken and in 5$s it means 10 million extra rake percentages taken. So every time PokerStars gives out a million with this promo, they have made 500000$ (half a million) extra.

    For one million to drop, in 0.5$s it means that PokerStars has raked in 4 million for those games (and probably returning a very small percentage back to low VIP level players) and in 5$s it means that PokerStars has raked 3.5 million in the games (again, probably very low average VIP level, very low rewards). It's a damn good promotion for PokerStars. They're making a ton of money for themselves and people are thinking that it's a great promotion and PokerStars is giving out money. Very smartly executed.
     
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  8. v1se

    v1se New Member

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    Hi Aarnimetsa, nice blog / post. Your calculations at the main page are out dated arn't they? Besides that it gives a real good view about my future as a spin player.
    Was wondering.

    How do you forsee the future on stars with spin & go's? They want to decrease the benefits from rake for the high volume players thus making massing spin & go inefficient...

    Have some insight about that?

    Regards!
     
  9. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Some of the calculations are a bit outdated, I should pretty much just start from scratch and update everything. I will try to do it in the near future, but I don't think I can do it during this year. A slight problem with a new format since the rules keep changing a lot. It will still be around where it should be, like % you need to be a winning player should be there. Also everything on 3000x Spins (like the bankroll management parts) applies to 10000x Spins as well.

    I don't think it changes a lot for low stakes Spins. It will change a ton for the players that are now doing SNE with the highest stake spins though.

    I would be worried if I would be maining Spin & Gos now, since they are pretty much the most opaque format available. It is really hard to see when the population changes so much that the games will be unbeatable for you and it requires a lot of volume to determine it. A lot of volume in a high variance game can be really costly if your edge has disappeared.
     
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  10. v1se

    v1se New Member

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    Thanks for the reply. Yeah thats what I was wondering about aswell. I guess I'm willing to take the risk. Everything is going pretty good now. Population tendencys are quite easy to figure out on the low stakes.

    I'll reconsider once I go up to 15$.

    As you said, at higher stake spins I think the benefit will be less and less. And as you said it takes too many games to figure out if you actually have an edge. Seeing the edge is significantly reduced against stronger opponents. Also a rake nerf. O well, lots of things to think about. :)
     
  11. eddotchs

    eddotchs New Member

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    I saw that two hours ago another 1M prize spin hit. More info on that ?
     
  12. Dayah

    Dayah Administrator
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    Apparently player Koovoon won it, AndyG1810 and Play2win$1kk shared the "mincash". I think it was $100 game.
     
  13. eddotchs

    eddotchs New Member

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    yes, i remember i saw play2win (i remembered the avatar) a week ago playing a 10X multiplier at 100 spind
     
  14. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I think I have played a lot with both Koovoon and Play2win before at Spins, so at least a two reg game. Oh well, when there's 1 million as main prize, perhaps even 2 reg game can be good ;)
     
  15. eddotchs

    eddotchs New Member

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    I read about the math on non-million spins..how about the the 0.5, 5, and 100$ spins what is the amount of chips per game to break even ? :D
     
  16. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    For 100$, it's the same as in 15$, 30$ or 60$ games, so you'll need to win on average 26.5 chips every game. To make these games grindable, in general you would like to see at least 3-4% ROI.

    For 5$, it's the same as in 1$ spins, so you'll have to win 38.5 chips every game. Practically to make these games grindable, in general you would like to see at least 5-6% ROI - in these games a lot more is given to the top, so it will increase the pressure you're having here.

    For 0.5$ we don't have ready calculations yet. Practically you would need to finish 36.3% ITM to be breakeven and that would be about 43.5 chips per game. Same caveat applies as for 5$ games, in general you would like to see 5-6% ROI for these games.
     
  17. v1se

    v1se New Member

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    I have been wondering.... I've been playing spinners for a while now. Just 4k games and I've been paying attention to the 'OBSERVE' tab at the spin & go section. I noticed there are barely any 'top-spinners' but when I queue for a game, the game pops instantly.

    Instant games, I have no clue how many, but there must be at least a couple of hundreds per minute at the 7 / 15 / 30$ right?

    But then in comparison to the JackPots and the 120/240 multipliers it feels like there are barely any. For example, the 240x should hit every 20k games. But if you make a quick calculation on how many games there are running, lets say:

    250 / minute = 15000 / hour = 75% of the 240 multiplier. So... you could say that there should be roughly one 240 multiplier every 1,5 hours right?

    What do you think of that? Is it just a feeling or am I overlooking something?
     
  18. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I believe at 15s there are about 20 games running per minute. They can give the illusion of games popping up instantly by being a bit overly hopeful in opening the game and they are having plenty of delays in the system where they're starting to open the game so that it still feels instant. At least I remember situations when the table has opened for me, but there's just one player with me waiting for a third or I'm sitting a few seconds alone. Especially if starting a session by opening 5 tables instantly. Might be just 30s though.

    So I believe there should be about 4 120x+ games running per day in 15s and about 1 240x running per day.
     
  19. v1se

    v1se New Member

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    Would make sense I guess, just gives me the feeling that there are a lot more running :)
     
  20. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I'd think one good point would be to check tournament numbers. I used two hypers that start pretty close to when they are created. One of them was played today, an earlier one on 7.11, so there's 16 days in between. During those 16 days, there were 15.7 million games played on PokerStars.

    So there are about 700 tournaments going on every minute. Is about 1 out of 3 of those games 15$ spin & go? I'd even believe that 5$ spins would be about 5 times more popular than 15$ games. And 0.5$ million dollar spins even more popular than 5$ ones, probably by a factor of 2 or 3.

    Even having about 20 of the games going on every minute would mean every 35th game that is running on PokerStars would be a 15$ Spin & Go. I wouldn't be surprised if Spin & Gos would be the majority of running tournaments on Stars.
     
  21. eddotchs

    eddotchs New Member

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    What is the meaning of the orange line (cnet adjusted) in the context of spins? I'm making around 60-65 chips per game but the orange line is dropping. I don't hit that often 4x and 6x. :roll:
     
  22. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    It's a line that takes away some of the variance (how you have done if every pot would have been solved as your equity), but I wouldn't recommend that for your analysis in spins, as it doesn't take multiplier variance into account at all. EV Chips will take also multiplier variance into account and that's what I would use as a measuring stick.
     
  23. eddotchs

    eddotchs New Member

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    Anyway the games are more difficult than they used to be. 3 handed the play is abc,simple, nothing crazy going on,but when heads up starts things are getting out of hand. Here is some annoyng stuff that i encountered playing 1$ spins

    -3 handed- when Hero is BTN and BB is short- you can't open light. When Hero is BB the shorty is SB, he shoves clueless ranges.

    -3 handed facing a min 3 bet with ATs, AJ, KQs, KJs-.I ve seen Villain having from Top 3% to any two cards. Let's say we call and see a flop.Villain will cbet 100% any flop, and sometimes will go crazy and overbet all in on the flop.

    -HU Hero has 2:1 chip lead, blinds are on level 2 or 3. Villain is going to resteal light by shoving on hero's min raises. So let's say if it's level 2 with blinds 15/30, hero mins to 30. If villain has 3.5 successful resteals, the stacks are almost even. If the blinds are on level 3 with 20/40 Villain has to make 2.5 successful resteals. Villain knows that Hero will open 89s, T9s, QJ, QJs, Q9s, Q10s 78s, K10, K10s , weak Aces, and in some cases even wider and this hands can't call a shove. You will say call wider, but since we have around 30 hands on Villain we don't have clue about his shoving ranges.

    -HU Hero has 2:1 chip lead, blinds are on level 2 or 3. OK, no problem, you will say: Open on the tight side. If after the first and second villains resteal you start to fold your small blind more often and open on the tighter side Villain will call you and take a stab on any board that doesn't have an A, K, or Q. Sometimes he will go crazy and shove the river if the board doesn't connect with your tight opeing range.

    :x In both situations Hero is in a lot of pain (if he doesn't get decent cards). :x

    -HU. Villan has 2:1 chip lead. Villan will have the same strategy restealing our wide oppeings and if we adjust he starts calling and stabs the low-medium flops.
    If the blinds are on level 3 it's even harder for Hero. Villain will abuse even more.

    -When the stacks are even is more difficult for villain to resteal, but they can go crazy with 63s,42s,JTs,etc when it's 20/40.
     
  24. cl75

    cl75 New Member

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    Hi everybody,


    Firstly thanks a lot for a really useful information. I've also decided to register here and mainly because of this topic.
    I used to play cash some years ago at low stakes and now after a long break I would like to try spins as a recreational player.
    Now I'm just wondreing whether I can be winning at 3-7$ and what should be my winrate.

    I would be really interested if somebody could give me a feedback on my first shortterm results. I would appreciate any hint on how can I better analyze my play and improve it.

    I know my cEV is terrible now and I'm doing really bad on HU stage. But still my question is - What is behind 0$ Net winnings at 3$ even when I have 40,6 ITM% and 11765 Net won chips. So I'm a little bit puzzled because it is 111 chips per game. Also am I right saying it is just and upstreak based on cEV and Net won difference?
    Obviously it is only few games played and I think this might be the reason? So meaning currently I'm unlucky winning multiplied games or?
     

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  25. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    That is the additional variance in the games. Because prizepools are drawn, you might have really good runs with regards of wins, but still lose money over the period. You see it the other way as well, on the 7$ games for you, you are losing ev adjusted chips, but your Net $EV would be about 8$ in the positive. So in sevens you have ran very well compared to what you should have in the prize pool draws and in the 3s you have had the opposite run.

    When I'm comparing the net won chips and ev adjusted, likely there is a fluke in your ITM. Really small samples though.

    In general, just counting from 177 games and 5180 EV adjusted chips, with this data probably the expectation would be like losing with negative 1-2% ROI. Not winning enough chips to win after rake takes it's share. Really small samples though, so even though that is the most likely explanation, your game may still be -12% or +10% in the long run. There's still a lot of uncertainty even when looking at the EV Adjusted chips when we're talking about just less than 200 games.
     
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