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Mathematics of Twister Poker

Discussion in 'General discussions' started by Aarnimetsa, Feb 4, 2014.

  1. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Twister Poker is the newest development in iPoker. It's a SNG where winner takes it all, games start at hyper turbo-alike 25bbs, 3 players enter. How it differs from regular SNGs is that you do not know how much you're playing for before the game starts. In case of 10$ SNG, you can be battling for 20$ prize or 10000$ prize. I'd presume this makes this format very popular with recreational players. On the other hand, when compared to hyper turbo headsups, rake seems to be on the high side in these games. iPoker is making prizepools in a way that for a 10$ SNG you're fighting for 27.94$ prize on average, which makes rake at the games somewhere around 6.7-6.8%.

    You should have higher edge when there's three players in the game and more opportunities in a longer tournament, but on the other hand game selection is harder than in heads up games. Compared to Sit n' gos, absence of ICM presumably makes good players have less of an edge against weaker players because ICM adds another layer in where you can make mistakes.

    For what is our current information, rakeback is counted as 8% or perhaps it is influenced by what kind of SNGs you hit. I don't know it yet for sure, but I'll update it here when I know how rakeback or VIP points for these games are calculated.

    That's it about introduction, now let's see some numbers. Odds in hitting a certain type of Twister SNG:

    1 / 20000 = 1000x buyin for the winner (0.005%)
    1 / 20000 = 200x buyin for the winner (0.005%)
    1 / 10000 = 100x buyin for the winner (0.01%)
    1 / 4000 = 50x buyin for the winner (0.025%)
    1 / 1000 = 20x buyin for the winner (0.1%)
    1 / 125 = 10x buyin for the winner (0.8%) - 99.8% of starting Twisters are between 2-10x
    1 / 12.5 = 6x buyin for the winner (8%) - 99.1% of starting Twisters are between 2-6x
    1 / 6.6 = 4x buyin for the winner (15.2%) - 91.1% of starting Twisters are between 2-4x
    1 / 1.333 = 2x buyin for the winner (75.9%)

    So, the games are a mixture of poker and lottery. What does this mean for a aspiring poker player?

    I made a simulation of 100 million games of Twister poker to find out the standard deviation of the games. Then I did 3 simulations for 10 million games, one for a breakeven player, one for a 5% winner and one for a 10% winner. The standard deviation of the games is about 4.6 buyins a game. Let's sink this in a bit, the game that is most similar to Twister poker, hyper turbo headsup SNGs has a standard deviation of exactly 1 buyins a game. 180-man SNGs that are known to be variance monsters are between 5 and 5.5 buyins a game. If you want to play these games professionally, you better know you need to be playing a lot of games for your skill to be dominant.

    It will be hard to estimate your edge correctly, when the game type adds it own kind of variance. You should only look at how many games you're winning. If you're winning more than 35.8% of your games, you should be at least breakeven. More than 37.6%, you should have over 5% edge in the games. More than 39.4% and you should have more than 10% edge in the games.

    Another poker related site suggests 50 buyin bankroll management for these games. If you are playing these games as a breakeven player, you're 30% likely to lose 50 or more buyins during your first 1000 games. For 5% edge, probability is just 7% and 10% edge the probability is just 0.7%. The worst 0.1% run for 1000 games would be -200 buyins for a breakeven player, -151 buyins for 5% winner and -95 buyins for 10% winner. So a high edge pays in this format, but I'm not sure how high an edge you can get in Twister Poker.

    On the other hand, if you run good, you will run godly good in the games. Breakeven player, +5% player and +10% player all got the best run at about +2000 buyins. It's all about hitting and winning 2x 1000 buyin games during a 1000 game period.

    For this structure, you'll win your expectation or more 35% of the time. Regardless of your edge. I'd think that this has something to do with the previous chapter. If you win, you can win really big, but most of the time you're not winning. Median results for a breakeven player are -22 buyins, for a 5% winner +29 buyins and for a 10% winner +77 buyins out of 1000 games. So the games will quite likely feel more depressing if you're looking at them on a tracking software report.

    In case you have something you would like simulated for Twister poker, or you have questions or you spot an error in my math, please post a message to this thread.
     
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  2. mrmaginis

    mrmaginis New Member

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    i played about 20 of these on betfair i think it was and there not very good imo the unique selling point is the prize pool wich i never seen at its max when i played 20 1 dollar ones the biggest prize was 4 dollars intersting concept but i think it attracts the gamblers more than the regs wich one would be pleased u think but the win ration vs the acual prize pool vs the amount of game u play means u probs have to be super lucky to regularly profit from such games and super lucky to ever play in a max pay out wich i never saw whilst observing games for a while too just another RAKE GIMMICK, maybe the next one will be on 888 as a push/fold twister lols
     
  3. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    When it is just 1 in 20000 which is a max payout game, you'll need to observe quite a few days until you'll see one. I'd think that in these it's the most important to just monitor if you're getting enough first places to cover your expenses in the long run and have a deep bankroll, because it will be a long time until you'll see higher level tournaments and even then it's just about 35-40% certain that you'll win any money even when you hit. According to my simulations, it's still possible to hit (and win) two maximum buyin games in 1000 games, although you need to be very, very lucky.
     
  4. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    For the preparation of Spin & Go article, I have also calculated how the money is distributed in Twister SNGs, which should be interesting in how to compare the two different formats.

    Code:
    5     / 100000 = 1000x buyins in play (0.005%) - 1.8%  of money is distributed here
    5     / 100000 = 200x buyin in play   (0.005%) - 0.4%  of money is distributed here
    10    / 100000 = 100x buyin in play   (0.010%) - 0.4%  of money is distributed here
    25    / 100000 = 50x buyins in play   (0.025%) - 0.4%  of money is distributed here
    100   / 100000 = 20x buyins in play   (0.1%)   - 0.7%  of money is distributed here
    800   / 100000 = 10x buyins in play   (0.8%)   - 2.9%  of money is distributed here
    8000  / 100000 = 6x buyins in play    (8%)     - 17.2% of money is distributed here
    15125 / 100000 = 4x buyins in play    (15.13%) - 21.7% of money is distributed here
    75930 / 100000 = 2x buyins in play    (75.93%) - 54.4% of money is distributed here
    So 3.7% of the money is given in higher than 10x prizepools you will hit in 0.145% of games (once in 690 games).

    On the top tier:

    There is a 95% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 1000 games.
    There is a 77% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 3000 games.
    There is a 62.5% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 5000 games.
    There is a 42.1% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 10000 games.
    There is a 24.2% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 20000 games.
    There is a 7.4% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 50000 games.
    There is a 1.5% chance that you will NOT hit a 1000x multiplier in 100000 games.

    I would think that a possible top estimate for the most active grinder on IPoker would be something like 20000 games a year. There would be a pretty real chance of not hitting the highest multiplier in FIVE YEARS. For the most active player possible.

    If you're a clearly winning player in Twisters and you will win 37% of your games.

    There is a 1% chance that you will not win any of 10 games.
    There is a 10% chance that you will not win any of 5 games.

    So the most active grinder in the games, if he hits 1000x prizepools every 20000 games would still have 1% chance for not winning a single 1000x game IN TEN YEARS! So he would effectively need to be winning at least at 1.8% in the games to be just breakeven in the meanwhile.

    And if he hits 1000x prizepools every 20000 games, he would still have a 10% chance for not winning the 1000x game IN FIVE YEARS!
     
  5. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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  6. gotchanow

    gotchanow New Member

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    Without a doubt the name of this game is the most apt... ''THE TWISTER''. It is popular because it is quick and less hassle with slow players and it has an unexpected excitement feel to it wondering where the arrow will stop... But that is where it all ends..... this is the biggest Scammer of them all, there is more chance of kissing the pope's bare ass than winning any of the major jackpots, or even anything above 100 euros a spin..... it is a brainwave of IPOKER who themselves are an elite cloak and dagger outfit not to be trusted.... unfortunately they control more than 90% of all games in the UK. All the major bookies and poker outfits are in collusion with them....
    This particular game needs shutting down, it is unfair and misleading to the average punter... it is a Con and needs removing ......!!
     
  7. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    In a way, it's not a hustle or scam when the odds are all public. There is a significiantly higher chance that a skilled player will win at Twisters compared to the whole casino-side of things for example.

    I'll know it first hand though that when you can be 500 buyins unlucky in just prize draws and run in the higher multiplier games in 10000 games, the games will feel really, really rigged.

    I'll still stand by what I wrote there, you will not get long term success in these games until your real ROI is high enough to make you win even if you don't hit the highest multiplier games. Long term in these games is significiantly longer than long run in other SNG variants.

    I think that the sites are making so much money out of these games, that they will not get removed until a governing body would deem them illegal in some form. Which won't happen as they're just a crossbreed between two different games for operators that have license for both. After PokerStars started offering casino, I don't know a single online poker operator that would not have a casino license.
     
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  8. gotchanow

    gotchanow New Member

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    Maybe so, but it quite clearly states '' WIN 1000'S of Euro's in MINUTES'' I have played over a 1000 twister games of all denominations and the most I have ever won or seen is 100euros.... it is really just impossible to win 1000's euros in minutes..... THAT IS A SCAM to say this......
     
  9. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    By hitting a 100x in just 1000 games, you have probably run a bit higher than your expectation would be. As I said, long run in these games is longer than you would think. Read up on the Spin & Go Maths post on the odds of not hitting the biggest prizes when you are playing large amounts of games: Mathematics of Spin & Go tournaments on PokerStars
     
  10. gotchanow

    gotchanow New Member

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    you have to agree it is impossible to win 1000's of euros in minutes.....!!
     
  11. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Technically it is not. You can spin the wheel, get 1000x tourney as your first one and win it in about 10 mins. I think on PokerStars one of the 1 million dollar Spin winners played the million dollar game as his second or third spin ever.

    Basically it's marketing. Almost the same thing as advertising high tournament wins in series even though it is quite unlikely to win a megafield tournament, it is still possible.
     
  12. gotchanow

    gotchanow New Member

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    Okay you seem to know the maths, not doubting that, but the whole thing seems very appropriately called the TWISTER cos it is a twist virtually impossible to win big ..
     
  13. mrmaginis

    mrmaginis New Member

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  14. jinjerjohn

    jinjerjohn New Member

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    Hi there. Does the fact that the prize distributions changed, even though the rake is still the same, change the ITM data you calculated?

    "If you're winning more than 35.8% of your games, you should be at least breakeven. More than 37.6%, you should have over 5% edge in the games. More than 39.4% and you should have more than 10% edge in the games"

    I'm not sure but my basic knowledge would say only the variance changed, but would like some confirmation from someone with a maths brain.
     
  15. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    When rake is the same, you'll require the same amount of wins. So you are correct in your thinking.

    Usually, when sites have changed their formats, variance has increased. As big payouts are easier to market.
     
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