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MTT: AA BvB vs Check-Raise (8max)

Discussion in 'Hand analysis' started by Neo1186, Feb 9, 2018.

  1. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Hi,

    Microgaming - 150/300 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BB: 53.85 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 46)
    UTG: 62.97 BB (VPIP: 46.15, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
    UTG+1: 56.42 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 31)
    MP: 113.58 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 8.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 111)
    MP+1: 101.26 BB (VPIP: 53.85, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
    CO: 18.77 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 54)
    BTN: 18.46 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 13)
    Hero (SB): 42.17 BB

    8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has A:spade: A:heart:

    fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

    Flop: (5.8 BB, 2 players) K:diamond: 6:club: 9:heart:
    Hero bets 3 BB, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

    Turn: (23.8 BB, 2 players) 2:heart:
    Hero checks, BB bets 13 BB, Hero ???

    Hero calls 13 BB

    River: (49.8 BB, 2 players) 8:spade:
    Hero checks, BB bets 25 BB, Hero calls 17.57 BB and is all-in

    BB shows 6:heart: 9:diamond: (Two Pair, Nines and Sixes)
    (Pre 16%, Flop 75%, Turn 82%)
    Hero shows A:spade: A:heart: (One Pair, Aces)
    (Pre 84%, Flop 25%, Turn 18%)
    BB wins 84.95 BB



    20 dollar rebuy tournament. Made double rebuy at beginning and this was after the rebuy period was over and I got an addon aswell. Opponent seems Reg-ish.

    Standard opening (maybe should have made it 3x?). Cbet could have been maybe smaller.

    Then we get checkraise on this board. Was afraid of 2pair, was hoping 87? He could easy call 2pair.

    So no idea what to do here. I thought I can not fold to checkraise. On blank Turn he continues. Maybe picked up runner flush? Should we fold, should we call, should we stack off. If we call Turn can we fold anything on River?

    Thanks for any help.
     
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  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

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    Yeah I think using 3bb or close to it would be better. Flop I would cbet around 40% sizing and probably cannot fold to single raise. Problem is that flop is pretty dry and villain can have 66, 99 (maybe if he is not willing to 3bet-stack off) and any two pairs. Usually I would expect QJ, JT to call as float. But 78 or some 8T type of weaker gutshot might raise.

    Nice part on this situation is that most of villain value range is 2 pairs so your AA will have 8 outs pretty often. Of course villain might not raise all two pair or sets. Anyway lets say that he takes flop raise and turn barrel line with something like K9s, K9o, K6o, 96s, 96o, 4 combos of 87o, 87s and Th7h. Versus that sort of range on turn you would have 34.4% equity. If you shove it would be around 30bb to invest for 84bb pot assuming villain never folds. So you would need 35.7% equity to go allin if he is never folding. So yeah with that range assumption it would seem pretty breakeven. If its more value heavy then it quickly gets really bad and vice versa.

    Just calling turn... Well I dont know if there is real benefit from it with stacks as shallow as they are. E.g. how likely is it that villain actually tries to bluff river anymore with 1/3 of pot size left? Downside is that he might be able to play it more optimally. E.g. lets say river is K and villain has 69 he is likely checking it. Or river is 9 and he has K6. Sort of same if A comes. Should we donk bet? Or if he gives up with straight draws when missing and value bets when hitting. So do we just let villain make more optimal decision or do we actually get some really weak draw like plain gutshot that would fold turn versus shove to bluff when it miss?

    So my personal preference would be to either fold or shove turn. Now if we assume villain might take this line sometimes with KQ or so then we have to stack off pretty much. Otherwise both options are probably fine. It is still BvB so I would likely end up stacking off pretty often. But flop being rainbow makes it still nasty option.
     
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