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MTT: Blufcatching River with good TP vs Reg IP?

Discussion in 'Hand analysis' started by Neo1186, Feb 10, 2018.

  1. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

    Jul 5, 2014
    Likes Received:

    Microgaming - 125/250 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 7 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BTN: 60.78 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 57.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
    SB: 20.51 BB (VPIP: 26.15, PFR: 18.69, 3Bet Preflop: 8.60, Hands: 222)
    BB: 74.86 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 24.24, 3Bet Preflop: 12.90, Hands: 101)
    UTG: 41.66 BB (VPIP: 21.11, PFR: 15.73, 3Bet Preflop: 7.50, Hands: 93)
    UTG+1: 15.33 BB (VPIP: 27.03, PFR: 19.44, 3Bet Preflop: 10.42, Hands: 112)
    Hero (MP): 20.39 BB
    CO: 27.31 BB (VPIP: 22.89, PFR: 18.45, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 252)

    7 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2.2 BB) Hero has J:club: A:diamond:

    fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

    Flop: (5.2 BB, 2 players) 2:heart: Q:club: K:diamond:
    BB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, BB calls 2 BB

    Turn: (9.2 BB, 2 players) A:spade:
    BB checks, Hero checks

    River: (9.2 BB, 2 players) 4:club:
    BB bets 8 BB, Hero???

    Okay so somewhere in mid stages approaching money bubble in 100$ MTT. BB seems to be Reg.

    Preflop minraise AJo standard.

    Flop I think Cbet vs his defending range should be fine but we could also just check it. Probably wont have any pocketpairs that will fold in his range and flop is dry but still kinda hard to play that way even IP.

    Turn we hit good top pair and I was unsure if I can value bet it or not. Awkward spot if we face aggression and if we check there are not many bad River cards and we can also induce and catch a bluff or bet River, would go for 2 bets here. So I thought I check.

    River he nearly pots it and I was unsure if I can catch it or not for half my stack. He should not have AQ or AK in his range and probably no 22 and 44. He can play JT that way, aswell as KQ, A4, A2, K4s maybe Q4s with some good will. Question is will he ever play hands like AT and lower that way for value? My line looks very weak like pure bluff or some scared Kx or Qx hand which will probably not call that often so he should bet smaller with naked Ax right? Unless he wants me to look him up badly with Kx type hand.

    I don't know, I guess because we block some straight and Ax 2pair and that he can't have low sets and AK or AQ in his range we should call, but I don't like it, smaller sizing would be easier call.

    Thx for any comments.
  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

    Oct 30, 2013
    Likes Received:
    Yeah I would say its mandatory call as default line. As you said you have blockers to some of his value hands and maybe he can value bet some weaker/split hands like this, e.g. AT, A9, AJ as your hand is somewhat underrep.

    Pretty dry flop and turn wont even open flush draw so going for three streets is somewhat thin. One option is to bet-fold turn and check river unless its A.

    PS: Reg should not really even have check-raise range on turn. It make little sense to raise as overall you have such big range advantage. So in villain shoes if I had JT or KQ I would just flat turn to balance weaker part of my range.
    • Thanks Thanks x 1
  3. DonJohnson

    DonJohnson Active Member

    Dec 28, 2016
    Likes Received:
    I would actually be tempted to fold the river against reg. Villain´s sizing indicates either two pair+ or a bluff. What kind of bluff can he have when reg floats cbet with huge range disadvantage out of position? I believe he would shove pairs 66-TT pre, so maybe some other small pairs, 33 or 55? Does turning Q/K into a bluff make any sense?

    I think I would make really small bet on the turn to keep initiative.
  4. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

    Oct 30, 2013
    Likes Received:
    Depending of villain J9s, T9s with backdoor flushdraw on flop is possible as bluff candidates versus smallish cbet. If villain is defending really wide he can also have some J2s, T2s. Not sure if villain should really have any small pockets in preflop flat range? With antes I would be pretty happy to shove them.

    But yeah Kx should never bluff. Weaker Qx probably bit more reasonable as he would have really good chance to get Qx, Kx to fold. Well its one of those spots that if we fold this what do we call? I suppose hero would tend to go for bet-bet-bet often with KQ+?