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MTT: Bluffing River after OOP Float vs Reg

Discussion in 'Hand analysis' started by Neo1186, Mar 9, 2018.

  1. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Hi,

    PokerStars - 40/80 Ante 20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    SB: 47.61 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
    Hero (BB): 35.62 BB
    UTG: 62.39 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 16)
    MP: 16.91 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 14.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 76)
    CO: 35.01 BB (VPIP: 26.15, PFR: 17.46, 3Bet Preflop: 9.68, Hands: 65)
    BTN: 27.62 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 17.16, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 151)

    6 players post ante of 0.25 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 3 BB) Hero has J:heart: 5:heart:

    fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

    Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 9:club: 2:diamond: T:heart:
    Hero checks, BTN bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

    Turn: (12 BB, 2 players) 9:heart:
    Hero checks, BTN checks

    River: (12 BB, 2 players) T:spade:
    Hero bets 8.04 BB,
    BTN calls 8.04 BB

    Hero shows J:heart: 5:heart: (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
    (Pre 39%, Flop 27%, Turn 34%)
    BTN shows 7:club: K:club: (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
    (Pre 61%, Flop 73%, Turn 66%)
    BTN wins 28.07 BB


    Opponent is good Reg from what I can tell.

    Close spot on the Flop, we are not that deep so not sure if we can really float with backkdor flush and straight draw and OOP. I thought it would also be possible to check-raise small here but problem is that I should not be checkraising much on this texture, only if there would be a flushdraw I would have much more check-raises.

    Turn pairs board and gives us flushdraw. Not sure if I want to bet out there or not. Pairing could make him stop betting decent amount of time and we get free card and not sure about my donk betting range here but could have been a spot to do it. He checks we get free card. If he would have bet we have to call I guess or maybe could even check-shove at that point? Although not sure we have much fold equity if he decides to double barrel on that turn?

    River double pairs board, we miss but seems good spot to bet after he showed weakness. I expected Ax to call fair amount but thought there is still alot he can fold with like some BW combos. Well he was having non of it.

    So unsure if line makes sense and if River bluff is a good idea and what you think about Reg call. Thx for the help.
     
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  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

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    I would just fold flop. Not much equity and OOP so I doubt we make profit by playing here. J7s with some direct nutty outs would be good enough.

    Turn would be nice spot for donk bet with this combo imo. No showdown value and its not huge problem if he happens to raise. If he bets e.g. half pot its somewhat questionable to continue. No idea if J is good and you do need some implied value.

    In river I dont mind bet as flop is dry so 9x and Tx is decent portion of your range. I dont really like villain call. If he calls that he is overcalling pretty quickly. It wont have much blocker for semibluffs so its not horrible call but still.
     
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