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MTT: Check-Raise and River-Bluff vs Reg OOP

Discussion in 'Hand analysis' started by Neo1186, Mar 9, 2018.

  1. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

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    Hi,

    PokerStars - 15/30 Ante 7 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    CO: 99.77 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
    BTN: 97.77 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
    Hero (SB): 98.77 BB
    BB: 99.77 BB
    (VPIP: 31.89, PFR: 26.59, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 188)
    UTG: 104.17 BB (VPIP: 55.88, PFR: 21.21, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
    MP: 99.77 BB (VPIP: 23.61, PFR: 21.21, 3Bet Preflop: 15.15, Hands: 73)

    6 players post ante of 0.23 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2.9 BB) Hero has 7:diamond: 6:diamond:

    fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

    Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 2:diamond: 5:heart: 6:spade:
    Hero checks, BB bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, BB calls 6 BB

    Turn: (25.4 BB, 2 players) J:diamond:
    Hero bets 13.5 BB, BB calls 13.5 BB

    River: (52.4 BB, 2 players) A:club:
    Hero bets 73.03 BB and is all-in,
    BB calls 73.03 BB

    Hero shows 7:diamond: 6:diamond: (One Pair, Sixes)
    (Pre 43%, Flop 70%, Turn 70%)
    BB shows 4:diamond: A:diamond: (One Pair, Aces)
    (Pre 57%, Flop 30%, Turn 30%)
    BB wins 198.47 BB



    So Preflop unsure if we should raise this or limp, I think both are fine vs Reg BB. We get 3x Iso and call, deep stacks, lots of implied odds.

    So then we hit top pair on lowcard board OOP. I thought Flop should mostly miss his Iso range and it is really miserable to call OOP with a hand like that, so many overcards, terrible guessing game. So I thought good spot to Check-Raise. Also have backdoor-flush and -straight and also not terrible to fold this hand to 3bet after Check-Raise. So we do the Check-Raise and he calls. Maybe sizing could have been bigger than 3x, like 3.5x or 4x his bet.

    Turn is really good for us, flushdraw if we are behind so I think better to continue betting instead of going into Check-Call mode OOP. Problem is if we face a raise or jam here we are pretty screwed? So we bet, he calls us again.

    River we don't improve and A hits. I thought if we arrive here we can think about jamming this. Even tough Ax hits his range pretty good it could be really hard for him to call with TP type hands (although the way the action went it seems unlikely he has many A single pair in his range?) He could fold some Jx that arrive on River and pocketpairs 77-TT should give up. He could have some sets like 66 and 55. He could have busted straight draws with 87. Maybe some J6 J5 type hands. Overall unsure now if a jam here makes sense, maybe this hand should have been a Flop Check-Raise, Turn Semi-Bluff and River Check-Fold.

    Well I still think that the hand he called could have folded to a jam, we should have alot of sets and 2pair hands in our range. Thanks for any comments.
     
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  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Preflop both options are fine and I would tend to mix hand to both ranges.

    In flop just check-calling. Sure there are overcards coming but hand is not really strong enough to raise for value even though weaker hands can continue. But in villain shoes I would never really 3bet flop. 100bb deep and you are representing mainly two pairs or sets or straight mixed with semibluffs. So if BB has overpair or even set he should just call.

    What happens after your raise most of time is that villain folds some weaker hand or he calls and you are still guessing if your hand is good or not being OOP. But pot is lot bigger. I would want to keep pot smaller with mediocre holding and thus keep future decisions less risky. Raise range should be more polarized. This sort of raises work better from position as even if villain call you have easier time to control pot in further streets.

    So imo you bloated pot unnecessarily. As played turn bet seems fine with extra equity. In river I wonder about sizing. Well if you have set or sometimes straight perhaps you can shove but I think shoving weak two pairs is sort of overplay. So it could be more reasonable to bet smaller and keep your value range wider as well?
     
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  3. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

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    Hey thank you for all the replys, really appreciated.

    Here I disagree (although maybe I am wrong), I think calling this hand is a mistake, OOP we will so often fold the best hand or give value to better hands that I am not even sure calling is better than folding vs Reg Cbet. Point of Check-Raise is to protect hand and counter his positional advantage of screwing us on further streets.

    About bloating Pot and and more risk and guessing game on further streets OOP: Check-Raising a hand type like this basically prevents exactly that. We can either pick up enough equity on Turn to bet comfortable for value (like trips, 2 pair), pick up futher equity with straight/flush-draws that "signal" us to continue semi-bluffing, or just give up/pray for showdown if Check-Raise gets called and we don't improve/get devalued on Turn. Pot is bigger on Turn but we are overall in a more profitable situation. We can also fold out alot of high equity hands like overcards that just have too much equtiy against us, hands like KQs etc. for example have around 23.7% against us, OOP happy to get that to fold with Check-Raise.

    That's an interesting idea, have to say I don't know the answer to that yet. I thought it makes sense to go for overbet cause we are really polarized at that point and want to have more room that way for bluffs in our range. If we arrive with TwoPair on River we could also check the hand and treat is as a bluffcatcher?
     
  4. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Range that villain is behind here has roughly 20-25% of equity so its not that likely for those hands to improve. Problem in my eyes is that by raising here we mostly get these hands to fold and isolate ourself versus better. Some portion of time he will continue with weaker like those A4, A3, A5, AhKh, 87s and such but he will still have position on you. So to me this is simply too strong hand to bluff with. Or well I suppose raising this is more of thin value.

    We definitely want to raise this flop some portion of time but e.g. 7d9d would be better for it as then there are ton of better high card hands that can fold.

    Also having some backdoor draws do give you easier time to face further aggression. E.g. 3, 4, 8, 9 or club all gives some extra equity. So there is actually decent amount of cards that are ok for your hand.
     
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