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MTT: Line check MP vs CO 56 BB deep

Discussion in 'Hand analysis' started by DonJohnson, Feb 11, 2018.

  1. DonJohnson

    DonJohnson Active Member

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    Party, $10 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 125 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
    SB: 96,175 (96.2 bb)
    BB: 88,480 (88.5 bb)
    UTG+2: 119,995 (120 bb)
    MP1: 99,625 (99.6 bb)
    Hero (MP2): 99,750 (99.8 bb)
    MP3: 73,612 (73.6 bb)
    CO: 56,195 (56.2 bb)
    BTN: 153,488 (153.5 bb)
    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[​IMG] K[​IMG]
    2 folds, Hero raises to 2,500, MP3 folds, CO calls 2,500, 3 folds
    Flop: (7,500) J[​IMG] Q[​IMG] J[​IMG] (2 players)
    Hero checks, CO bets 2,025, Hero calls 2,025
    Turn: (11,550) 2[​IMG] (2 players)
    Hero checks, CO checks
    River: (11,550) 6[​IMG] (2 players)
    Hero bets 7,392, CO raises to 25,299,
    Hero folds
    Results: 26,334 pot
    Final Board: J[​IMG] Q[​IMG] J[​IMG] 2[​IMG] 6[​IMG]
    Hero mucked K[​IMG] K[​IMG] and lost (-12,042 net)
    CO mucked and won 26,334 (14,292 net)


    Not much reads on villain, only 38 hands and V´s stats are Vpip 16 PFR 5 3bet 0,0.

    Comments on betsizes/ general lines, would you bet the flop, or valuebet river smaller, call V´s river raise?
     
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  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

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    Rainbow flop and villain quite easily hits its with his preflop flatting range which will likely contain good amount of pocket pairs, some broadways and some solid Ax. So in flop you can either check or make small cbet. Its not necessarily bad to try to go for 3 street value with smallish sizings and fold to most raises. But I think its actually bit thin as we obviously block KQ heavily. AQ he will call down and probably some QTs.

    So other option is to check though 16/5 is not type of opponent to bluff much usually. But we need little protection so its fine overall if we think 3 streets value is not good. If flop goes checked we can pretty happily bet turn and river.

    I think river size is good to extract value from Qx and maybe sometimes get like 88 or so to hero call. Once passive looking opponent like this raise river its sort of nasty. Obviously only small hand sample but overall his stats are still indication of passive opponent. But his flop and turn lines does not really look like Jx+ as he is not trying to build up pot. 66 would obviously make sense.

    We need to be ahead like 1/3 of time and his line is weird. So I would probably look this up.
     
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  3. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

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    (was writing this over 2 days, Ghaleon already answered but here are my thoughts: )

    A River Raise fom Hell.

    So Flop is close, he can have Qx and some straightdraws and gutshot that would call us (KTs, T9s, some ATs, AK), but Flop is not too volatile, so I think betting or checking is both fine for me, would probably prefer cbet with aim to get 2 bets in.

    River I'm unsure about sizing, his line looks very weak, probably alot of pure bluffs and missed draws left in his range, but mid strenghs Qx can also play that way and call us. Would Probably bet smaller like a bit under half pot to make it easier that he looks us up with some crap.

    And the River Checkraise is just awful. He really shouldn't have many Jx there. Like the Jx he calls pre should have good enough kicker to go for stackoff, no point in checking and risking to get outdrawn by runner flush or losing value. Only thing that makes sense is 66 and maybe some creative 22, JJ, QQ. Just don't see much pure bluffs if he isn't crazy, so unless I have seen him do stupid stuff I will probably fold this, would be too afraid of misplayed Jx and him having some monster.
     
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