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MTT: TP on Volatile board on Bubble OOP

Discussion in 'Hand analysis' started by Neo1186, Jan 10, 2018.

  1. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

    Jul 5, 2014
    Likes Received:

    Microgaming - 200/400 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    CO: 39.72 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 12.96, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
    BTN: 26.86 BB (VPIP: 24.79, PFR: 15.32, 3Bet Preflop: 5.61, Hands: 722)
    SB: 68.83 BB (VPIP: 41.03, PFR: 31.58, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 40)
    Hero (BB): 29.59 BB

    4 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.9 BB) Hero has A:spade: J:spade:

    fold, BTN raises to 2.12 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.12 BB

    Flop: (5.15 BB, 2 players) 7:heart: 8:heart: J:diamond:
    Hero checks, BTN bets 3.42 BB, Hero???

    Hero raises to 27.36 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 21.21 BB and is all-in

    Turn: (54.42 BB, 2 players) T:club:

    River: (54.42 BB, 2 players) 2:club:

    BTN shows 7:diamond: 7:spade: (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
    (Pre 52%, Flop 97%, Turn 95%)
    Hero shows A:spade: J:spade: (One Pair, Jacks)
    (Pre 48%, Flop 3%, Turn 5%)
    BTN wins 54.42 BB

    So 3 places paid, 4 players left. SB really loose aggro player, BU good reg.

    Thought about shoving pre but hand also good for flatting and I thought Reg could have quite strong range there.

    Top pair on horrible Flop. He Cbets horrible Flop. I thought I can not call here since there are so many bad cards coming for us. We are OOP and he can get free River so we have just to give up so many times on future streets. And even if Turn is a blank calling 2 barrels is pretty bold. I thought if we shove this Flop we can get called by some worse Jx hands and some draws or combo draws we are ahead. Altough there can be plenty of hands that have strong equity vs us and won't fold like most flushdraws which should have overcards or gutshot or pair. Maybe because of bubble this is spot he could try to put preasure on us and maybe cbet more than usually? Sucks we don't have backdoor flush.

    Maybe we could make it like 3.5k non allin reraise and give up to shove? But pot odds are ridiculous with that small sizing on this volatile board.

    But yeah, I don't like either option.

    I also tried to make a quick analysis with Equilab and Fold Equity Calculator, really rough:

    Villain Range when he calls our Flop-Shove: 77,AhKh,AhQh,KhQh,AhJh,KhJh,QhJh,AhTh,KhTh,QhTh,JhTh,Ah9h,Kh9h,Qh9h,Jh9h,Th9h,Ah8h,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo,T9o,98o
    Our Equity versus that range with AsJs: 39.76%

    Fold Equity Calculator Results:

    So he has to fold roughly 30-32% of the time. That does not include any ICM.

    Idk, probably a mistake to jam this?

    Thanks for any help or comments.

    Attached Files:

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  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

    Oct 30, 2013
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    Well preflop shove should be +EV but I think calling will be better. In flop folding is too weak and stacking off is overplaying the hand so call is only option pretty much. Small raise and fold does not make sense as villain can easily shove over with those combo draws. Also for BU it would be good idea to check good amount of time with those pair + gutshot hands imo.
    • Thanks Thanks x 1