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MTT: TT UTG vs scary 3bet

Discussion in 'Hand analysis' started by Neo1186, May 12, 2018.

  1. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

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    Hi,

    PokerStars - 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL - Holdem - 9 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    MP: 16.15 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
    MP+1: 68.86 BB (VPIP: 17.17, PFR: 15.64, 3Bet Preflop: 8.64, Hands: 831)
    MP+2: 14.43 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
    CO: 24.7 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 13)
    BTN: 45.31 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
    SB: 54.3 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
    BB: 79.82 BB (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
    Hero (UTG): 52.17 BB
    UTG+1: 63.91 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

    9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has T:club: T:heart:

    Hero raises to 2.38 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 6.39 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero???

    Opponent pretty much unknown. 22$ buyin, in the money after bubble but far away from FT.

    I didn't know what to do here, seems all options are bad, hand too strong for a fold, shoving relys on how much he folds and calling oop with this hand seems to be burning money aswell.

    Well looked at it with fold equtiy calculation and if we have around 33% when called (his range when he calls I estimate as JJ+ AK, but unsure if he plays all AK that way) with TT and if I got that right we need him to fold 34% of the time if we jam in this spot. Now looking at it that seems really unrealistic vs unknown, maybe even vs regs.

    So what do we do here? Even calling seems problematic since he just doesn't have that many bluffs and his range is so strong and we are OOP.

    And another question, if he would jam this would be a call in chip-ev vs unknown?
     
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  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

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    To me this shallow this is fold or shove spot versus his 3bet. Such small sample on villain that I would tend to shove but not really liking the situation as we are 9handed. Absolute bottom hand anyway.

    I think I would tend to be more happy versus shove as it might cap villain range somewhat. Problem of this spot is obviously that CO wont have too much light 3bets and his value range might be like AQ+, 99+ usually at widest. But as said sample is small so there might be surprising stuff.

    I doubt folding or shoving has that much difference.
     
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