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MTT: Turning AJ into Bluff on River

Discussion in 'Hand analysis' started by Neo1186, Jan 8, 2018.

  1. Neo1186

    Neo1186 Well-Known Member

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    Hi,

    Microgaming - 50/100 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    UTG: 52.5 BB (VPIP: 38.66, PFR: 28.21, 3Bet Preflop: 9.38, Hands: 126)
    MP: 44.05 BB
    CO: 50 BB (VPIP: 38.71, PFR: 13.11, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 63)
    BTN: 50.65 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
    SB: 39.46 BB (VPIP: 25.94, PFR: 20.08, 3Bet Preflop: 10.55, Hands: 1,053)
    Hero (BB): 50 BB

    SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: J:spade:

    UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

    Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 7:diamond: T:diamond: 9:heart:
    Hero checks, UTG bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

    Turn: (11.5 BB, 2 players) 6:club:
    Hero checks, UTG checks

    River: (11.5 BB, 2 players) 4:heart:
    Hero bets 7.5 BB,
    UTG calls 7.5 BB

    Hero shows A:heart: J:spade: (High Card, Ace)
    (Pre 62%, Flop 79%, Turn 23%)
    UTG shows 3:spade: 6:spade: (One Pair, Sixes)
    (Pre 38%, Flop 21%, Turn 77%)
    UTG wins 26.5 BB


    So standard defend vs Reg looking guy (small sample). Maybe 3bet is also possible.
    Flop two overs and gutshot so we call Cbet, we can also maybe bluff if we miss on further streets depending on action and runout, lowcard board is better for our range.
    Turn check-check and board is really coordinated now, I think good spot to bluff on River and get better hands to fold like AQ, AK. Another reason to turn AJ into bluff is that if we check to him on River he could bet again as a bluff, but we have a really hard time calling anything on most River cards. But then again maybe we should not turn showdown value hand into bluff here?
    River makes board even more coordinated lowcard and I decided to bluff and he made quite a call, guess I deserved that one?

    Thanks for any comments or suggestions.
     
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  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

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    Solid looking line. Also good you dont have diamond so villain can have those. You have lot more 8x than him and his call on river is definitely going to be -ev in long run. At least as long as you also value bet some T6, 96, 66 type of hand as well. With sizing like you used it totally plausible which is also reason I like it. E.g. if you go for pot size or overpot its lot easier for villain to assume your range is 8x or bluff.
     
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  3. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
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    Also I dont like 3bet here. Cheap to call and you have no need to build big pot OOP versus UTG imo. Though he does look like villain that can have way too wide range so we could also value 3bet. But as default I would not have this in 3bet range ever vs UTG.
     
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