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Discussion in 'Blogs and projects' started by danitah, Mar 26, 2015.
August so far, just Single Table games $1.5-$7.
150 BIs below EV last 5 weeks now.
Can be quite rough when it hits. Hurted my projects a lot going a bit over 200 buyins under EV in those. Just something you can't do nothing about, you can just try your best to get both graphs to go up, but you can't make them touch.
Impressive though in how much the Net adjusted still goes up, usually when you are unlucky in the games, you are unlucky in a way that makes Net Adjusted also drop from what it should be.
Hey , thanks for telling me i was sitting out I`ve been having problems lately with session lord it just stops bringing tables to the front for no reason =/
@Mariuoos No problem Sucks to have those kind of problems. Hope you manage to fix it!
It's been a pretty nice upswing since my last results post.
August so far now:
One of the most ridiculous accidents today. Grinding and chilling and hit some button combo on my gamepad by accident and suddenly my screen freaking looks like this:
Hello Dany, I am here just to say hello and nice see you in same table in 6 max hyper 3.5$ ,it is not my main game so if I do some bad error dont lol me ,I play their only when I have not action in MTT,and sorry if I dont say hi there because I have many tables.
No problem, that makes two of us. Good luck and see you on the tables!
(Note: I'm not 100% confident about the math here. So don't trust everything until someone more skilled in poker math than me has seen it. In particular, I'm not sure if C should be 'Increased chance of survival if winning the pot' or 'Chance of survival if winning the pot'. Logic to me says the first one, but experimenting seemed to indicate the second one is correct.)
Some Fifty50 math:
Nothing really groundbreaking but I think this might help understanding how the format works, and why calling ranges can be really wide in some spots and tight in others.
How to calculate required odds to call an all-in in Fifty50s:
(Note: Only works when you are the last to act and you are calling all of your chips.)
X = Chips required to call
Y = Chips in the pot after we call
Z = Chance of survival when folding
C = Increased chance of survival if winning the pot
A = Required odds
First we need to do is to give an extra value to folding. We know that getting ITM is worth 1500 chips, so the extra chip value of folding is going to be: 1500 * Z.
We also do the same with extra chip value of winning the pot: 1500 * C.
Guessing the chance of survival into the money might be a bit tricky, but you can probably make decent estimates by thinking about the situation. Sometimes you can also get better results than HRC in this way if there is a lot of collisions in the future that HRC does not take into account.
Now that we know how many extra chips folding is worth, and how many extra chips winning the pot is worth, we can translate this into the required odds to call like this:
A = (X + (1500 * Z)) / (Y + (1500 * C))
From this we can also get the risk premium (RP):
RP = A - (X / Y)
So let's try it out in some examples.
PokerStars - $6.68+$0.32|200/400 Ante 50 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 2,050 (VPIP: 21.11, PFR: 19.88, 3Bet Preflop: 7.85, Hands: 4,503)
Hero (BB): 1,785
UTG: 2,245 (VPIP: 17.35, PFR: 14.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.41, Hands: 905)
MP: 3,960 (VPIP: 30.99, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 71)
CO: 3,040 (VPIP: 25.64, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 39)
BTN: 1,920 (VPIP: 15.60, PFR: 13.40, 3Bet Preflop: 7.53, Hands: 2,054)
6 players post ante of 50, SB posts SB 200, Hero posts BB 400
Pre Flop: (pot: 900) Hero has T Q
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2,000 and is all-in
We are the shortest stack here, but pretty close to BTN, and there is also another kind of short stack, so I'd think our chances of survival are maybe around 50%.
Winning the pot puts us in 2nd place and also cripples SB, so I'd think chances of survival in that case will be really good. Probably 90% at least, so let's go with that, and C becomes 0.4.
A = (1335 + (1500 * 0.5)) / (3770 + (1500 * 0.4)) = 0.48
So we need 48% equity to call, and RP is around 13%.
Checking this in HRC it's pretty close, in FGS1 J5o is +0.07 against a 100% range, and J5o has 47% equity against a 100% range.
Let's try it with an extreme example.
(SB shoving into hero on BB)
X = Chips required to call = 7000 - 500 - 60 = 6440
Y = Chips in the pot after we call = (60 * 4) + (7000 * 2) = 14240
Z = Chance of survival when folding: It's going to be virtually guaranteed. Let's just say 99%.
C = Increased chance of survival if winning the pot: If we win, we are in the money always, so it's going to be 1%
A = (6440 + (1500 * 0.99)) / (14240 + (1500 * 0.01)) = 0.56
RP = 0.56 - (6440/14240) = 0.11
(Risk premium is around 11%)
Results are pretty much the same as HRC. Shouldn't be much disparity here.
Now let's try to think of a spot where HRC might give a misleading result:
(SB shoving into hero on BB)
Let's also say that we know blinds are guaranteed to go up in 2 hands, when we are on the button.
X = Chips required to call = 700 - 200 - 25 = 475
Y = Chips in the pot after we call = (25 * 4) + (700 * 2) = 1500
Z = Chance of survival when folding: Well pretty hard to estimate, but we do know that player on BTN will be forced all-in during the next orbit. 60% might not be a bad estimate
C = Increased chance of survival if winning the pot: I'd say around 20%.
A = (475 + (1500 * 0.6)) / (1500 + (1500 * 0.2)) = 0.76
RP = A - (475 / 1500) = 0.44
Required odds in HRC with FGS1: 47.5%
RP in HRC: 0.15
Might be that I overestimate Z here, and also I might be underestimating C. Still I think this shows very well one of the spots where we can't trust HRC, and why.
It's pretty nice situation when you have elemental advantage over your opponent!
Hey all! Going to make another session video so I'll try making a poll this time and play whatever people want to see.
Choice is between 6max, 9max, 18men or fifty50s.
Turbos and hypers will count as same, so if for example 6max turbo + 6max hypers combined have most votes i will play the most voted one of those.
Vote here (copy paste link):
Will choose the winner when I make the video in 2-3 days.
Hey danitah, great blog and hope the grind is going well. After looking at your sharky i saw you have played about 40,000 games this year (BIG VOLUME). I am wanting to add far more tables especially as 50/50's are probably the best game to multi table.
I wonder how you set your sessions up and how many tables you play at once? One long session or split it into two sessions a day? I am sure you have earnt a little bit from rakeback this year aswell, platinum star?
Great blog....keep up the grind
I made a video of some 18mens yesterday. Unfortunately I had some background music that made it muted on YouTube. So I'll have to find another way to post it.
@goodformbrah Thanks! Yeah I'm currently Platinum star. A bit behind on getting Supernova but I'm going for that.
I basically play stacked and move tables out if they need extra attention. If I'm playing fifty50s I usually have one stack for tables on the bubble and one stack for the others. I play 20-24 tables usually. My sessions usually last 1-3 hours and I play 2-4 sessions in a day.
I put the 18-men session on dropbox for download. 1GB file size for a 2hour video I hope it's not too big of an inconvenience, you can get it here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/8j0msdlpogf7rt7/output.m4v?dl=1
It's also possible to stream the file in VLC: Simply open VLC, press Ctrl+N, copy-paste the link above, and click Play.
It's possible to stream it in your browser here, but it's low-res so I don't recommend it: Dropbox - output.m4v
Hope you enjoy it and let me know if you have any problems.
Are you a coach here?
Nope, just a member.
Oh ok, that's pretty cool you track your progress and make videos on here. Good luck at the tables!
Do you spend much time studying reviewing hands ? is it every day or once in a while? Do you think too much studying can be also counter productive if it keeps you away from the tables? Do you take many coaching sessions?
I don't really spend that much time. I probably only spend around 15 minutes a day reviewing marked hands after my sessions. Might be more if I play a format I need to improve on. Also sometimes I neglect reviewing marked hands because I've played a lot and I just want to do anything else than poker after I'm done playing for the day, which is kind of bad. I often tell myself that I'll do it the next day but that almost never happens. So I think I study a bit too little on average. I have some random days where I find some interesting thing to study and I can easily spend a couple of hours on it though.
I'd say it depends. I have found that if I'm thinking about poker in a competitive way, as opposed to thinking about it as just a grind, I get more motivated to study and also more motivated to play after studying. For a beginning player I think getting quality study time done is never a bad thing.
For a professional you can probably make the case that if he spends 30% of the time studying and 70% of the time playing, for example, he would have made more money if he would have spent only 5% of the time studying and 95% playing. It largely depends what kind of games he's playing and what he's trying to achieve in the future. If already playing games where he has a really big edge, for example if he has 40% ROI and studying really hard might increase it to 45%, it's not going to be as valuable as for the guy who has 2% ROI but could increase it to 4% by studying really hard.
In the end studying helps us maintain our edge and progress as a player, which makes it essential for any player who wants to make money from poker.
I think this year I've only taken one or two public coachings here on Pokerimania, nothing else.
Thanks for the questions, really good topics I have to say! I would be interested to hear your take on these questions as well.
Thanks for your answers...As for my self i try to study every day but only every second week i`ve full time job week on/week off , so 2-3 hours ideal sometimes less sometimes more it depends what i`m working on .
Some of them are not very efficient , loosing focus or interest after a while , struggling to keep it up . 4 Coaching sessions a month . That kept me progressing steadily so far started in 1.5$ hypers this year and currently playing 15$ but volume is not as big as i`d like it to be i guess something has got to give . So it`s not easy to find that sweet spot between studying and volume... Going for platinum this month whoop whoop
wouldnt you say 18mens are the most challenging games? I heard that very often because there not really MTTSnGs and neither just STTs.. you have to know pretty well when to play PoF depending on tables left (like ICM kicks in on the final table but before its been played like a usual MTTSnG) is that right?
The download of your video would take me 10 hours, maybe I'll start it later ^^
Hey! Nice to see you back and thanks for the questions.
It kind of depends what you compare it to. 18mens are probably the hardest out of MTTSNGs, but pretty similar to the easiest STT formats just based on how hard they are to beat. You definitely need more ICM skills in 18men compared to for example 45men.
Well there are always ICM considerations to make. Early 18men will have a lot more ICM than early 45men for example. In general I use 70/30 structure for pre-FT 18men hand analysis.
yeah I'm kinda back, need to find my games to grind. I mean I could go on with 45-180mens but really got a little sick of it
Hmm interesting because I thought its probably the game with the most regulars. I just scoutet some of em and even on 3.50s it looks quite crowded. I dont have HRC .. I wanted to get ICMizer 2 with this SnG Coach tool which helps you training push folding, but I know HRC better and it costs half as much. So close call but I guess I go for HRC and try to find another ICM trainer.
I wonder what do you think is a bad game? I have played a few of those already and only see a few regs in lobby currently.
I dont know what ratio would count as crowded with regs, but if you have 50% on 3.50 (e.g.) (i just checked some of those who play multiple tables), would that be still good? I guess so.. ROI wise it looks like the top players with 5k+ games end up between 7 - 12% which is pretty good imo, on the other hand are those the best players $7-15 BI
Are the money wise swings in 18men comparable with 45+?