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Project Phoenix Rising, $150 to $1000 with hypers in a week

Discussion in 'Blogs and projects' started by Aarnimetsa, Jun 15, 2016.

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How long does it take to go from $150 to $1000?

Poll closed Jun 16, 2016.
  1. Less than a week

    2 vote(s)
    13.3%
  2. Between one and two weeks

    5 vote(s)
    33.3%
  3. Between two weeks and a month

    5 vote(s)
    33.3%
  4. Not going to happen, going broke.

    3 vote(s)
    20.0%
  1. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I'll start up a new project and I hope to show you how to grow a small bankroll to a respectable one quickly in my main games. Hyper SNGs. My goal is to hit $1000 of bankroll in just a week of playing days. Will be longer in real days, since there will be days I just can not play on. I'll start this challenge as a Supernova VIP level, so my returns will be higher, but I think that during this project I should hit Platinum VIP anyway.

    The project will be started here. At $150 and 3 cents for good luck.

    BankrollStart.png

    Starting this challenge as a Bronzestar would probably be better since then I would get more instant rewards at the beginning when there's a chance for me to go broke. I'm starting this challenge when I'm already at 75% complete on a $50 bonus. So I'll only take 25% of the bonus when it arrives, but it's still going to help me in the beginning, to get RB quicker usually means that you can build on it. Now I'll need the 250 points to get my first $12.50 reward.

    To make it more interesting, I intend to stream once a day when I'm playing and I'll post at least one update to the threads in Finnish and English. On the streams I intend to play a bit less tables.

    Language for the streams will be Finnish on days with Finnish coachings and otherwise English, so there should be plenty of English content coming up your way during the next week or so.

    Bankroll management will be quite close to this:

    $0-$180 - just 9-max hypers if they run enough. I'll add 6-maxes only if 9-maxes don't run enough for my sessions. In practice there's the same variance in 6-maxes than 9-maxes, but in 9-maxes you can get a bit higher ROI, so there's less chance of ruin playing 9-maxes.

    $180 and over we'll add the best $3.5 games. If bankroll drops to under $150, we'll get back to just $1.5s. I'll constantly add more $3.5s when the bankroll grows. So I'm aiming to increase buyins constantly if bankroll grows and drop them when it shrinks.

    $350 and over we'll start adding the best $7 games and likely drop all $1.5 games. If bankroll drops to under $280, I'll drop all $7s.

    $650 and over we'll start adding the best $15 games and dropping rest of the $3.5s. If bankroll drops down to under $550, I'll drop all $15s.

    Realistically, the bankroll management looks quite aggressive. You'll need to remember though that I'll run 20 tables constantly as well. So when I talk about $600, in reality it's going to be something pretty close to $740 when I'm having equity in the running games as well. In single table SNGs it's possible, but almost unheard of to not cash in any games if playing over 20.

    I think that with a good run I could have this done after 2000 games. I'd think on average I would need to win only about 200 buyins if being very aggressive with my bankroll after I know I won't be broke. On average that should take about 4000-5000 games I think. The worst case scenario would be somewhere around 10000 games. I'll at least try to aim to have one day with more than 1000 games and average somewhere in between of 500 and 600 games.

    I'll take up comments, wishes and questions in this thread. I'll open up a poll as well about how this is going to end.
     
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  2. claudel86

    claudel86 New Member

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    gl with your new project, Aarni! hoping to see an upwards looking graph ;)
    it`s nice watchig your streams, vids and ocasionally play against you
     
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  3. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Adding the first day's graph here. Pretty close to 3.5s for the evening session already. About 180-190 games to go for getting the $12.50 bonus.

    Day1Graph.png

    Some problems getting SessionLord to register me consistently, but fixed it with not removing 0 player tournaments from the window. Not so smart me thought about fixing another problem by updating both Stars and SL. Problem did not get fixed, but I got some new problems...
     
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  4. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Well, let's add the second day's graph here. I did play about 120 games in my first session and as we passed $180 handily, we did start off with having some $3.5s first time during this project on stream.

    Theme was on stream to get back to square one.

    Day2.png

    Stream was a horror story. Only a dozen of $3.5 games. Two mincashes, no other money finishes. About -$30 almost instantly.

    To finish it off, my second session was completely horrible. I felt I played overall very good, but nothing did go my way. Like shoving with 88, getting it in against a dominating pocket pair. Calling A7s in a spot opponent should be close to any two cards and getting it in against a dominating ace. Then repeating those situations over and over again, where opponents just show up in a hand with a slightly better dominating hand. Even though EV and buyins look horrible there, it's just -6 buyins EV and -20 buyins in real money. Just harder when most of it is in $3.5s.

    After 2 days, project looks like this and we'll have 3 days of not much happening, back to the grinds on Monday. I'm just really pissed to end again the grinding days in a horrible day. Thinking about doing Sunday as well, even though it would only be a short day (could start grinds at after 15:00, but need to be awake in the morning).

    Kaikkipelit.png

    @danitah probably outplayed me on one of the games pretty badly twice with a really exploiting line...One spot where I thought what his range could be here and tried to make him fold anyway and on the second one just made a quick decision and instanly afterwards it was a "oh crap, this will almost always result in world of hurt for me". I think I was among his least profitable common opponents a moment ago.

    Now his stats look like this in my eyes (awarding ICM equity on the moment I get eliminated on the table) - basically almost all the regs are losing in these stats as it will not contain their whole edge in the games...

    danitahInMyEyes.png

    I'm not even sure what I could say to this. Probably not going to remain as the least profitable opponent for him for long. On the end, he did never get eliminated in $3.5s before me and had solid stacks in pretty much every game when it rockets up. Even breakeven would be awesome in these graphs and this is ... just sick? :crazy:
     
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  5. danitah

    danitah Well-Known Member

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    Yeah that 3-handed spot I limped was kind of interesting one, maybe I should try using some "limp bluffs" in similar spots in the future? :) No idea what the other hand could be though.
     
  6. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Lately pretty much just fighting technical problems. Not much to write here about.

    Day 3, 4 sessions filled with technical problems:

    Day3.png

    Day 4, 3 sessions with two crashes:

    Day4.png

    Day 5 before the stream, single crash and two sessions:

    Day5SoFar.png

    Project after 4 and half playing days:

    ProjectAfter4andHalfDays.png

    If nothing, it has been a swingy journey thus far. About halfway done on a $55 bonus now.

    Technical problems have been problematic for the streams as well, as day 3's stream was full of white boxes. PokerStars has also crashed for me 4 times when I have had a full session running, which takes a toll on volume, concentration and EV. Now exploring the second to last version which @Dayah had. I had a stone age Sessionlord with the old version of Stars and could not go down far enough to get a working set of tools...

    The ugly side of updating only rarely, if something goes wrong, there's almost no way out of it. If I would have always upgraded, the almost latest ones would have been at backups. I already dread upgrading for Windows 10...
     
    #6 Aarnimetsa, Jun 22, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2016
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  7. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Someone has clipped the wings of my Phoenix or sold me an Ostrich or some other bird that just can't fly.

    Today's stream:

    Day5Stream.png

     
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  8. Dayah

    Dayah Administrator
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    Pinky and the Brain Brain Brain Brain :lol: Awwww!
     
  9. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Played some more yesterday after the set, so final results of Day 5 are here:

    Day5.png

    Day 6, today hasn't started much hotter. Thought about doing another set before today's stream, but chose to go to store and buy some beer and chocolate instead.

    Day6SoFar.png

    Project is now here after 5 and half days:

    ProjectAfter5AndHalfDays.png

    Both projects combined are quite nasty right now, about $215 under EV playing basically just $1.5s.

    BothProjectsCombined.png

    Epic shitrun is epic. Pretty much nothing else to say. Last 300 games with positive 5% EV ROI and real ROI of about -20%. Probably Phoenix was a too exotic bird for the North?

    Starting today's stream at about $80 of bankroll left.
     
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  10. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Midsummer is here and thought to show a music video what Finnish midsummer is all about:



    2 have already drowned and 2 died in traffic this midsummer. Water and booze in a usual midsummer kill about 10 Finns :cry:
     
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  11. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Competing the first 7 days of this project with a 50 buyin upswing. Unfortunately, it didn't feel as fortunate, as it was preceded by a 35 buyin downswing.

    Day7.png

    Good amount of games though, hope to hit about a similar amount tomorrow and after that there will be again a 3 day's break in the project.

    Whole project currently looks like this:

    ProjectAfter7Days.png

    At about $130 at the moment and something like 10% from getting the next $55 bonus. Again we will be close to 3.5s tomorrow...
     
    #11 Aarnimetsa, Jun 28, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2016
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  12. reepo

    reepo Active Member

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    During this challenge do you stream on twitch? If so is it in english?
     
  13. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Most of the streams have been, I'll do once or twice a week a Finnish session though as well.
     
  14. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Unfortunately, before every big break I can't take the break as a winner. Going to be 2 or 3 days of quiet in this project and we'll be back on the weekend.

    Day 8 ended here. Actually, the first 23 games were a winning session on stream in Finnish!

    Day8.png

    Whole project looks like this. Back to needing the next RB just to survive and not to get up to $3.5s.

    After8Days.png

    If something, this was not the way I wanted to start the sessions, 250 games is not nearly enough per day, but it's getting harder and harder to get motivated and stay positive for streams when you just don't feel positive at all. Luckily, there's a few days break without poker to get my mind off of this project for a while.
     
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  15. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Just as MacGyver returned to the screens, to work for Phoenix Foundation once again, this Phoenix will fly again. Even though these later projects have looked more like "Moby Dick", where white whale evades capture once again, I'll try to turn this into a hero story. With 100% more mullet! Making hypers great again!

    We'll change the setup a bit, trying to get this done during October. As I know that there will be plenty of days I can not play games, I'll probably have 8 full days and probably 4 half days.

    After 9 days and a few testing days (with less than 100 games a day), we're here when everything is concerned. $15 is in unbought bonuses, so bankroll was about 145.70 at that point. During Finnish stream yesterday I managed to get it very close to $150.

    [​IMG]

    With regards to buyins, we're about here when returning to the project. EV looks niceish at 85 won buyins, but if I'll can't get the bird to fly on higher stakes, it will take a lot more than the 200 expected buyins to win. When you'll losing at the higher buyins and need to drop down, every time you're grinding the buyins up from lower stakes, it increases the distance to travel. Really not happy with the EVs either during the project, should be a lot more in 1.5s.

    [​IMG]

    Well, hoping to see many of you on stream today.

    A bit ashamed in how the projects have gone lately and how life did interfere with this one as well.
     
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  16. foxcatcher

    foxcatcher Active Member

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    Epic quote is epic. :) GL Aarni !! That chart is the perfect example why I shouldnt play such guys, those swings .. holy cow
     
  17. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    I actually bluffed. Went to the Tallinn Zoo that's nearby and spotted a Phoenix.

    [​IMG]

    Even though it was just a decorative chicken...
     
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  18. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    2DaysOfStreamsRostOff.png

    2 days of streams have gone quite nicely and we're really, really close in going to $3.5s during the next stream! Actually I think if bonus would be taken into account, we could add one $3.5 on the next set, but likely want to get the real money over the hump first.

    Thanks for everyone chatting tonight and getting my head back on track. Really good comments on game from @Mariuoos , @Ghaleon , @danitah and @Neo1186 at least that I remember. I'd think that by just fixing the mistakes in the hands brought up, there would have been like 0.3-0.4 buyins more equity for today, which would have been close to 1% in ROI, which is nothing to sneeze at in hypers.
     
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  19. Kyyberi

    Kyyberi Well-Known Member
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    Lol, I thought that this new "phoenix rising" started from the first post and I didn't check the dates. I wondered that how unlucky it is to run that same kind of epic shitrun again... :D :D :D
     
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  20. Dayah

    Dayah Administrator
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  21. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Well, here's hoping for $7s for the next stream. Currently we are here and we are also having a bit over $30 in unclaimed bonuses. Actually this is the first time I have seen a doubled bankroll after a session.

    DoubledItUp.png

    Basically the journey here has been filled with $1.5s. Running bad at $3.5s has repeatedly dropped me down into grinding the money back at $1.5s. As a result, at where I should be after winning about 40 buyins in 1.5s and 30 buyins in 3.5s - I'm here after winning 120 buyins. Practically it means that it's a longer grind. Running over 70 buyins under EV thus far hasn't helped either.

    First I thought I could add about 5000 games last month, but it didn't happen, not even close. Started learning estonian language in Tallinn and going there by bus takes up over 5 hours in a day we have lectures. The course also started in a way that you got only 2 days of preparation for it, so always they'll inform about changes or start 2 days before the start. So it has been over 60 hours sunk in there - if used for poker, it would have been the 5k tournaments just in there...

    JourneySoFar.png

    Games are soft, as expected:

    EasyGames.png

    3 Supernovas in a $3.5 hyper bubble. Games are soft as there were only 3 Supernovas to start the table... I actually bubbled that game, even though when I took the photo I was at a chiplead. Generally the games are a lot softer though, that game was an anomaly - especially when I had 2 high volume players that I haven't encountered before and marked as a reg.

    Well, gotta be grinding on and probably adding soft $7s and trying to get rid of as many $1.5s as I can. Yesterday at night I just had to play a ton of $1.5s to get enough tables. I'm a bit worried that I couldn't drop all the $1.5s in the near future even if I wanted to. Even when it is in the plan that I should, I'm not sure if I can. At peak times I should have mainly 3.5s and 7s now, but offpeak I think there will be some 1.5s included.
     
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  22. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Got bored, did another set and bankroll is now tripled up. Actually a bit more, as there is $45 in unclaimed bonus that should hit my account quite fast in these buyins.

    TripledItUp.png

    It can go quickly from here, if run stays the same. Practically would need just about 20-25 more buyins at $7s and then 20-ish buyins at $15s. Can happen in a day, my best days in hypers have been at over +100 buyins in a day.
     
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  23. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    upload_2016-11-14_3-46-42.png
     
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  24. Aarnimetsa

    Aarnimetsa Well-Known Member
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    Unfortunately didn't finish it today and next sessions will be after tuesday next week. So will be staying at around $600 for a while here. Still having a bankroll for mixing in the best $15s, so should be a good next week for the 6-maxes.

    Last day looked like this:

    LastDay.png

    Basically the average buyin was almost exactly $7 for that day. 34 total $15 games there, but had to have some $3.5s as well. With a good run, could have finished it today...

    Complete project looks like this:

    After5000Games.png

    Well, "caught" the real money line with EV line now. Both are almost equal at $500-ish. Bankroll apparently was for a moment at $700. Actually made me wonder that should I stop the challenge when I end a set at over $1k or when bankroll has momentarily gone over $1k...

    The smaller downswings at the start look so tiny in money when the swings have gotten bigger at the end. You can pretty well see where the buyins have increased, when the swings get progressively bigger and bigger.

    Onwards to the next week, should have 2 sessions pretty much around when I come back and if it is close, perhaps doing weekend streams as well. There would be a certain charm to end the challenge in a stream, if by any means possible.
     
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